技术环境不确定性对企业创新的影响机理——基于实物期权理论框架的实证研究

Influence Mechanism of Technological Environment Uncertainty on Enterprise Innovation:Empirical Study Based on Real Option Theory

基于实物期权理论,构建技术环境不确定性客观评价指标,利用2012一2021年沪深A股上市公司数据,分析和实证技术环境不确定性对企业创新的影响及其内在机理。结果发现:技术环境不确定性对企业创新存在抑制效果,等待期权效应而非增长期权效应占主导。当利用工具变量缓解存在的内生性问题及进行其他稳健性检验之后,上述结论依然稳健,且技术环境不确定性主要抑制了企业探索式创新。进一步作用路径检验发现,技术环境不确定性通过增加不确定性规避与代理成本抑制企业创新。此外,产权性质具有调节作用,技术环境不确定性对企业创新的抑制效果在民营企业中更明显。

Based on the real option theory,this paper constructs an objective evaluation index of technological environment uncertainty and analyzes its impact on enterprise innovation and mechanism using the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2021.It is found that the technological environment uncertainty inhibits enterprises'innovation,and enterprises show the waiting option effect rather than the growth option effect.After using instrumental variables to alleviate the possible endogenous problems and other tests,the above conclusions are still robust,and technical environment uncertainty is mainly reflected in inhibiting enterprise exploratory innovation.Further research on the action path shows that technological environment uncertainty increases uncertainty avoidance and agency costs for enterprises,hindering innovation.In addition,the nature of property rights plays a regulatory role;that is,the inhibitory effect of technological environment uncertainty is more obvious in private enterprises.