美联储加息对中国经济增长动力的传导路径——基于资产价格渠道的阶段性分析

Research on the Transmission Path of the Fed’s Interest Rate Hike to China’s Economic Growth Motivation——An Analysis of Different Periods Based on Asset Price Channels

后疫情时代美联储开启长期持续加息,引发中国资产价格下降和美元债利息成本高企,加剧中国经济下行压力。本文基于STVAR模型考察不同经济周期阶段内美联储加息通过汇市、房市、股市和债市资产价格渠道对中国投资、消费和对外贸易三类经济增长动力的传导路径,研究结果表明:美联储加息通过引发人民币贬值刺激中国出口总额和进口总额增长,总体上导致中国经常账户顺差减小;美联储加息引发中国房价上涨,进而刺激中国消费增长并促使中国投资在中国经济扩张期和收缩期内分别增长和减少;美联储加息在长期引发中国股价下跌,进而导致中国消费和投资减少;美联储加息通过引发债券价格下跌抑制中国消费和投资。本文为美联储加息冲击下中国经济维稳政策措施的制定提供了实证依据和启示。

In the post pandemic era,the Federal Reserve has initiated long-term and sustained interest rate hikes,causing a decline in China’s asset prices and high interest costs for US dollar bonds,exacerbating downward pressure on the China’s economy.This paper examined the transmission paths of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes on China’s investment,consumption,and foreign trade through asset price channels in the foreign exchange market,housing market,stock market,and bond market during different stages of the economic cycle based on STVAR model.The research results show that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes stimu⁃late China’s total export and import growth through the depreciation of the RMB,leading to a decrease in China’s current account surplus overall;The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes push up housing prices in China,which in turn stimulates China’s con⁃sumption growth and drive investment to increase during the expansion periods of China’s economy and decrease during the contrac⁃tion periods of the China’s economy;The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes cause a long-term decline in China’s stock prices,leading to a decrease in China’s consumption and investment;The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes suppress China’s consump⁃tion and investment by triggering a decline in bond prices.The research in this paper provides empirical basis and inspiration for the formulation of China’s economic stability policy measures under the impact of Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.