新质农业劳动力培育对农作物生产的影响——以棉花生产为例

The Impact of the Cultivation of New Quality Agricultural Labor Force on Crop Production——A Case Study of Cotton Yield

本文以棉花生产为例,从农业劳动力转移的角度出发,选取了2005—2021年中国22个棉花主产省份数据,运用中介效应模型实证分析了农业从业人员比例及农业人力资本存量对棉花生产的影响,得出以下结论:(1)整体来说,农业劳动力从业人员比例和农业人力资本存量的提升能够促进棉花总产量增加,而现阶段的土地流向不利于棉花总产量的提高。(2)从长江流域、黄河流域棉花主产区来看,无论是增加两个区域的农业人力资本存量和农业劳动力比例、还是提高土地流转率都将提升棉花总产量。(3)西北内陆地区在制定增加棉花总产量的政策时,需同时考虑现阶段低技能农业劳动力过剩及土地流向问题。根据以上结论,建议完善土地流转市场,提高新型经营主体承包率,降低撂荒可能性,并加强西北内陆地区农业劳动力技能培训,提升新质农业劳动力水平,解决低技能劳动力过剩问题。

With cotton production as an example and from the perspective of agricultural labor transfer,this paper selects data from 22 major cotton-producing provinces in China from 2005 to 2021.It empirically analyzes the impact of the proportion of agricultural workers and the stock of agricultural human capital on cotton yield through a mediation effect model.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Overall,the rise in the proportion and the stock can promote the increase in total cotton yield,while the current land transfer is not conducive to this increase.(2)In terms of the major cotton-producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin and the Yellow River Ba⁃sin,increasing the agricultural human capital stock and the proportion of agricultural labor in these two regions,as well as improving the land transfer rate,will contribute to enhancing total cotton production.(3)When formulating policies to increase cotton produc⁃tion in the northwest inland areas,it is necessary to consider the current problems of low-skilled agricultural labor surplus and land transfer.Based on the above conclusions,it is advisable to refine the land transfer market,increase the contracting rate of new types of agricultural operating entities and enhance the probability of moderately scaled land,reduce the possibility of land abandonment.In addition,there is a need to strengthen agricultural labor skill training in the northwest inland areas to increase human capital stock,improve non-agricultural transfer and address the surplus of low-skilled labor force.