基于马斯京根法的玉龙喀什河融雪洪水预报应用

Application of Snowmelt Flood Forecasting in Yulong Kashi River Based on Muskingum Method

为探索适用于融雪洪水预报的科学方法,基于马斯京根法利用黑山站实测资料对新疆玉龙喀什河同古孜洛克站进行洪水预报应用,以19610728场次洪水为率定期,确定参数K=6,x=0.42;以19730707洪水、19770701洪水、19810720洪水和20150720洪水为检验期,经计算,洪峰误差在±5%以内,最大24 h洪量误差在±6%以内;最大3 d洪量误差在±8%以内;最大7 d洪量误差在±8%以内,确定性系数均大于0.85。表明马斯京根法对玉龙喀什河融雪洪水模拟精度较高,应用性较强。

In order to explore the scientific method suitable for snowmelt flood forecasting,based on Muskingum method,this paper uses the measured data of Heishan Station to apply flood forecasting to Tongguziluoke Station of Yulong Kashi River in Xinjiang.The parameters K=6,x=0.42 are determined by taking 19610728 floods as the rate.Taking 19730707 flood,19770701 flood,19810720 flood and 20150720 flood as the test period,the flood peak error is within±5%,and the maximum 24 h flood volume error is within±6%.The maximum 3-day flood volume error is within±8%.The maximum 7-day flood volume error is within±8%,and the deterministic coefficient is greater than 0.85.It shows that the Muskingum method has high accuracy and strong applicability in the simulation of snowmelt flood in Yulong Kashi River,which provides a reference for snowmelt flood forecasting and flood control and disaster reduction in alpine regions.