“四边安全对话”与美国的战略演进

The QUAD and the Evolution of the U.S.Strategy

在美日印澳“四边安全对话”机制经历20年三个阶段的发展进程中,美国的亚太战略不断演进,在其中先后扮演倡导者、推动者和主导者的角色,呈现出越来越重视该机制的趋向。随着“印太”概念的兴起,美国更加倚重“四边安全对话”,尤其注重拉拢印度、推进四边基础设施合作、升级军事同盟、扩充“四边安全对话”成员。美国之所以大力推动“四边安全对话”,主要是希望通过“四边安全对话”维持其全球霸权、阻遏中国崛起的进程、取代中国“一带一路”倡议、削弱中国在南亚和印度洋地区的影响等,从而服务于其全球战略利益,塑造有利于美国的印太战略环境。当然,美国和其他三国对“印太”概念、战略重心、国家利益、外交政策等层面存在分歧和差异,这制约着美国战略目标的实现。毋庸置疑,“四边安全对话”将加剧地区安全困境、激化地区矛盾、恶化中国周边安全环境,但不可能阻止中国崛起的进程和“一带一路”倡议。中国应该对“四边安全对话”保持警惕,采取预防性外交,以消除或减少不利影响。

Over the past 20 years,during the three-stage development process of the“Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”(QUAD),the Asia-Pacific strategy of the United States has continuously evolved,playing the roles of advocate,promoter,and leader successively,indicating an increasing emphasis on this mechanism.With the rise of the“Indo-Pacific”concept,the U.S.has relied more heavily on the QUAD,especially focusing on courting India strategically,advancing infrastructure cooperation economically,upgrading alliances militarily,and expanding members of the QUAD diplomatically.The primary reasons why the U.S.vigorously promotes the QUAD and emphasizes the threat of China is mainly that it hopes to maintain its global hegemony through the QUAD,contain China’s rise,replace China’s“Belt and Road Initiative”(BRI),and weaken China’s influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region,so as to serve its global strategic interests and shape a favorable Indo-Pacific strategic environment.However,due to the differences and divergences between the United States and the other three countries regarding to the“Indo-Pacific”concept,strategic focus,national interests,foreign policy and other aspects,have restricted the realization of the U.S.strategic goals.Undoubtedly,under the promotion and influence of the United States,the QUAD will aggravate regional security dilemma,intensify regional contradictions,and deteriorate China’s surrounding security environment,but it cannot prevent China’s rise and the BRI.China should remain vigilant about the QUAD and adopt preventive diplomacy to eliminate or reduce the adverse effects on China.