基于ELES模型和CD效用函数的“纵横双向”消费结构变动研究

A Study of Changes in Consumption Structure Based on the ELES Model and the Cobb-Douglas Utility Function in Both Directions

探究消费升级对于促进共同富裕具有深远意义。基于CFPS 2010—2020年数据,结合扩展线性支出模型(ELES)、CD效用函数和门槛回归等方法构建了“纵横双向”识别模型,并实证考察了我国居民消费升级与消费结构状况。研究发现,2010—2020年我国居民家庭消费结构横向上呈升级趋势,但仍以生存型消费支出为主;细分“三型八类”消费,发现生存型与发展型的消费占比上升,享受型消费存在较大的消费偏好,表现出消费分层特征,且家庭消费结构呈多样化发展趋势;家庭年度总支出的三条约束线分别为60100元、122800元及122900元。纵向上发现预算约束线在不断后移,表明消费结构在不断升级。文章运用多门槛回归方法结合ELES模型构建了消费结构的综合识别模型,以此作为判断消费结构升级与否的依据和标准。

It is of profound significance to explore the issues of consumption upgrading to promote common prosperity.Based on the data of CFPS 2010-2020,we constructed a“vertical and horizontal two-way”identification model by combining the Extended Linear Expenditure Model(ELES),the CD utility function and the threshold regression,and empirically examined the situation of household consumption upgrading and consumption structure.Research findings indicate that from 2010 to 2020,the consumption structure of Chinese households showed a horizontal upgrading trend,but survival consumption expenditure remained dominant;by subdividing“three types and eight categories”of consumption,we have found that the proportion of survival and development oriented consumption is on the rise,while enjoyment oriented development has a greater preference for consumption,showing a layered consumption characteristic,and the household consumption structure is showing a diversified development trend;the three restrain lines of the total annual expenditure of the family are respectively 60100 yuan,122800 yuan,and 122900 yuan.Vertically,it is found that the budget constraint line is constantly moving backwards,indicating that the consumption structure is constantly upgrading.The article uses multiple threshold regression method combined with ELES model to construct a comprehensive identification model of consumption structure,which serves as the basis and standard for judging whether the consumption structure is upgraded or not.