日本8年负利率背后的重大战略失误与启示

Major Strategic Mistakes and Inspirations behind Japan's 8-year Negative Interest Rates

日本长期实行负利率的直接原因有外贸环境长期缺乏改善,日本社会结构性矛盾限制了整体活力,改革红利有限等。这一现象背后存在重大的战略失误:一方面是对雁阵模式的路径依赖和盲目自信;另一方面是对以氢能源为代表的战略性新兴产业发展路径的判断失误。这些为我国在错综复杂的国内外形势下,以新质生产力促进经济高质量发展提供了启示,我国应积极采取货币、金融、财政、产业等综合政策,多管齐下,避免日本式的长期萧条:不犯颠覆性错误,慎重选择战略性新兴产业为重点的产业发展路径;练好内功,挖掘全球最大中产阶级群体的巨大市场潜能并加快构建全国统一大市场;娴熟运用财政货币金融政策,积极应对金融挑战与风险;促进高水平开放,积极延长全球化红利期。

The direct reasons for Japan's long-term implementation of negative interest rates include lack of improvement in the foreign trade environment in the long term,the structural contradictions in Japanese society that limit the overall vitality and limited dividends of reform.There are significant strategic errors behind this phenomenon.On the one hand,it is the path dependence and blind confidence for flying geese paradigm;On the other hand,it is a misjudgment for the development path of strategic emerging industries represented by hydrogen energy.This provides some enlightenment for China to promote high-quality economic development through new quality productive forces in the complex domestic and international situation.China should actively adopt comprehensive policies such as monetary,financial,fiscal,and industrial policies,and take multiple measures to avoid a Japanese style long-term depression.First,avoid making disruptive mistakes and carefully choose the industrial development path that focuses on strategic emerging industries;The second is to improve“inner strength”,tap into the huge market potential of the world's largest middle-class group,and build a unified national market at fast speed;The third is to proficiently apply fiscal,monetary,and financial policies,actively respond to financial challenges and risks;The fourth is to promote high-level opening up and actively extend the dividend period of globalization.