欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国出口贸易的影响研究——以对欧盟制造业出口为例

Research on the Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China's Export Trade:A Case Study on Exports to the EU Manufacturing Sector

为了深入分析碳关税对我国出口贸易的影响,探索构建碳关税税率对出口影响的定量分析框架,本文运用世界投入产出表(WIOT),以对欧盟贸易为例,借助引力模型计算得出碳排放与出口总额存在较强的相关性,在此基础上证明了碳排放的变化将对中欧贸易产生较大影响。研究表明,随着我国碳排放强度的减小,碳关税对欧盟出口总额的影响减弱,但当碳关税按照70欧元/吨征收时,2019年的出口额仍下降17.91%。此外,11个高碳排放行业的测算结果表明,当碳关税增加到70欧元/吨时,企业出口大幅下降,甚至停止出口。基于实证研究结果,本文提出了加强碳关税政策预判、综合运用收支调节工具、优化外汇政策拓展企业生存空间、进一步推动产业结构转型等政策建议。

To thoroughly analyze the impact of carbon tariffs on China's export trade and explore the construction of a quantitative analysis framework for the effect of carbon tariff rates on exports,this paper utilizes the World Input-Output Table(WIOT)and takes trade with the EU as a case study.Using the gravity model,the study finds a strong correlation between carbon emissions and total exports,demonstrating that changes in carbon emissions will significantly impact China-EU trade.The research indicates that as China's carbon emission intensity decreases,the influence of carbon tariffs on the total export value to the EU weakens.However,when the carbon tariff is levied at 70 euros per ton,the export value in 2019 still dropped by as much as 17.91%.Additionally,calculations for 11 high-carbon emission industries show that when the carbon tax increases to 70 euros per ton,enterprise exports decline sharply,or even cease altogether.Based on empirical research results,this paper proposes policy recommendations such as strengthening the anticipation of carbon tariff policies,comprehensively using income and expenditure adjustment tools,optimizing foreign exchange policies to expand enterprise survival space,and further promoting industrial structure transformation.