绿色交通与城市可持续发展——基于低碳交通运输体系试点政策效应评估

Green Transportation and Urban Sustainability--An Evaluation of the Effects of Pilot Policies for a Low-Carbon Transportation System

以低碳交通运输体系试点政策作为一项准自然实验,基于2006—2021年中国282个地级市面板数据,运用空间双重差分法探究绿色交通政策与城市可持续发展的关系及其作用机制,结果表明:绿色交通政策的实施能够促进城市可持续发展,并经过一系列稳健性检验结果依旧显著,且在空间DID下,绿色交通政策具有显著正向的直接效应;异质性检验表明,绿色交通政策对超大城市的间接效应显著为正,对特大城市的间接效应表现为负向,而对大城市及以下城市可持续发展则无明显影响,对东部与东北地区城市可持续发展具有更为明显的促进作用;绿色交通政策可以通过科技创新促进城市可持续发展。研究结论为绿色交通政策促进城市可持续发展提供了新视角和新思路。

This study utilizes the pilot policy for a low-carbon transportation system as a quasi-natural experiment.Based on panel data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2021,this study employs the spatial difference-in-differences method to investigate the correlation between green transportation policy and urban sustainability,along with the underlying mechanism.The findings indicate that the implementation of green transportation policies can enhance urban sustainable development,with results remaining significant even after various robustness tests.Moreover,within the spatial DID framework,green transportation policies exhibit a notably positive direct impact.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the indirect impact of green transportation policies is significantly positive for mega-cities,negative for super-large cities,and inconsequential for large and smaller cities.Additionally,the policy demonstrates a more pronounced promoting effect on the sustainability of cities in the eastern and northeastern regions.Green transportation policies advance urban sustainability through technological innovation.These research findings offer fresh perspectives and insights for green transportation policies to support urban sustainability.