基于突变级数法的泵站运行安全风险评价研究

Safety Risk Evaluation of Pumping Stations Based on Catastrophe Progression Method

泵站安全运行对南水北调工程的运行效益起到至关重要作用.为了更科学、客观地对泵站运行安全风险进行评价,首先结合南水北调东线泵站工程实际运行情况,采用德尔菲法将安全风险进行分类,接着对风险因素进行归一化处理,构建出南水北调泵站运行安全风险评价指标体系.最后以南水北调东线某大型泵站为例,使用突变级数法对东线泵站的运行风险进行评价.结果表明:此泵站整体安全运行风险等级为可接受等级;运行管理体系不健全、机电设备安全状态、金属结构安全状态属于可接受风险等级;运行管理行为不规范为可忽略风险;土建结构安全状况不良风险为一般风险等级.

The safe operation of the pumping station plays a vital role in the operational efficiency of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.In order to evaluate the safety risk of pumping station operation more scientifically and objectively,this paper combines the actual operation of the pumping station project on the east line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,Firstly,the Delphi method is used to classify the safety risk,and then the risk factors are normalised to construct the South-to-North Water Diversion pumping station operation safety risk evaluation indicator system.Finally,a large pumping station on the east line of the South-to-North Water Diversion is taken as an example,and the operation risk of the pumping station on the east line is evaluated by using the mutation level method.The results show that the overall safety operation risk level of this pumping station is acceptable.The operation management system is not sound but belongs to the negligible level;the operation management behaviour is not standardized;the safety condition of metal structure and the safety condition of electromechanical equipment are bad belonging to the acceptable level;the safety condition of civil structure is bad,but belongs to the general level.