复杂社会网络与N-K模型的氢能储运系统风险因素耦合分析

Coupling Analysis of Risk Factors in Hydrogen Energy Storage-Transportation System Based on SNA and N-K Model

将复杂社会网络(SNA)与N-K模型的融合风险因素分析体系引入氢能储运系统安全风险评价中。收集整理国内外近20年来氢能储运事故案例;运用N-K模型计算风险耦合值并确定事故耦合形式,利用SNA构建关联网络计算风险度量;结合复杂社会网络可达性分析与N-K模型修正出接近中心度以确定关键风险因素,并提出相关对策措施。结果表明:避免人-设-环-管多因素风险耦合形式是降低事故发生概率的关键方式;设-环-管三因素风险耦合形式最易引起事故的发生;人才队伍、管理执行力度、规章制度、文化水平、专业技能是需要重点防范的关键风险因素。

The fusion risk factor analysis system of complex social network(SNA)and N-K model was introduced into the safety risk assessment of hydrogen energy storage and transportation system.Through collecting hydrogen energy storage and transportation accidents in the past 20 years at home and abroad,making use of N-K model calculate risk coupling values and determine accident coupling forms,and employing the SNA to construct correlation network to calculate risk measurement,as well as combining SNA reachability analysis with and N-K model,The closeness centrality was modified to determine key risk factors and relevant countermeasures were presented.The results show that,reducing probability of accidents can avoid multi-factor risk coupling form of operator-device-environment-management which cause accidents most likely.Talent team,management strength,rules and regulations,cultural level and professional skills become key risk factors that need to be focused on prevention.