地方政府如何影响城市人口规模:基于土地供给的视角

How do Local Governments Influence Urban Population Size:A Land Supply Perspective

本文基于288个地级市的城市面板数据、259个地级市的人口普查数据,研究了地方政府视域下土地供给与城市人口规模的关系。研究发现,工业用地占建设用地比例每增加10%,城市人口规模增加5.27%~5.88%;商住用地占建设用地比例每增加10%,城市人口规模减少3.89%~5.91%。以财政分权程度作为工具变量的两阶段最小二乘(2SLS)分析呈现出一致的结果。机制研究表明,地方政府主导的这种土地差异化供应通过影响商品房的房价及居住模式共同作用于城市人口规模。区分不同学历群体和地区的结果显示:土地政策对高学历人群影响更大;离港口越近,工业用地占比增加会带来更多的人口流入;相较中西部,东部地区工业用地占比会显著促进人口流入,商住用地占比的效应不显著。本文为解决区域经济协调发展的“地随人走”政策提供了进一步的理论及经验证据。

This paper investigates the relationship between local government land supply and urban population size based on urban panel data for 288 prefecture-level cities from 2002-2011 and 259 prefecture-level cities from the 2005 and 2010 censuses.It is found that for every 10%increase in the proportion of industrial land to construction land,the urban population size increases by 5.3%-5.9%;for every 10%increase in the proportion of residential land to construction land,the urban population size decreases by 4%-6%.A two-stage least squares(2SLS)analysis using the degree of fiscal decentralization as an instrumental variable presents consistent results.Mechanistic studies suggest that this differentiated supply of land led by local governments acts on urban population size by influencing the price of commercial housing and thus urban population size on the one hand,and by influencing settlement patterns on the other.The results of differentiating different educational groups and regions show that:land policies have a greater impact on people with high educational attainment;the closer to the port,the higher the share of industrial land will bring more population inflow and thus increase the city size;compared to the central and western regions,the share of industrial land in the eastern regions will significantly promote population inflow,while the effect of the share of residential land is not significant.This paper provides further theoretical and empirical evidence to address the“land follows people”policy for coordinated regional economic development.