中国环保考核制度调整与经济增长方式转变

Adjustment of environmental assessment system and transformation of economic growth pattern in China

经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,是经济增长方式最直接的体现之一。首先分析城市经济增长率与企业二氧化硫排放量之间的关系,发现其在2005年前后发生了根本性转变:在2005年以前,二者高度正相关,而在2005年以后,这种相关性明显减弱。机制分析发现:出现这一转变的直接原因是在2005年及以后随着经济增长率的提高,企业更多地使用清洁能源代替非清洁能源;更深层的原因则是在2005年以前地方官员选择放松环境规制促进经济增长,而2005年及以后此动机因官员环保考核制度调整而受到抑制。进一步分析发现,重污染行业占比不同的城市在2005年及以后选择了不同的“清洁化”增长战略。分析表明,2005年环保考核制度调整使中国的经济增长方式发生了根本性转变。

The relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution is one of the most direct manifestations of economic growth pattern.This paper first analyzes the relationship between urban economic growth rate and enterprise sulfur dioxide emissions,and finds that there is a fundamental change in the middle of 2005:Before 2005,the two are highly positive;Since 2005,the correlation has weakened significantly.The mechanism analysis shows that the direct cause of this change is that with the increase of economic growth rate in 2005 and later,enterprises use more clean energy instead of dirty energy;The deeper reason is that before 2005,local officials tended to relax environmental regulations to promote economic growth,while in 2005 and later,this motivation was inhibited by the adjustment of the environmental assessment system for officials.Further analysis shows that the cities with different ratios of heavy polluting industries choose different“clean”growth strategies.The analysis of this paper shows that the adjustment of environmental assessment system in 2005 has caused a fundamental change in China’s economic growth pattern.