中国人口与技术进步变化对利率演化的影响研究

Study on the influence of demographic and technological progress changes on interest rate evolution in China

近年来,中国经济显现出“三低一高”态势,宏观政策调控陷入“低利率”困境约束,宏观经济存在“长期性停滞”风险。立足于此,构建TVP-VAR模型,基于以人口红利和技术进步为主的经济增长动能变迁视角深入探究中国“低利率”形成之谜。基于事实分析发现:中国人口结构正不断恶化且人口总规模已于近年来开始趋于负增长,客观表明人口红利逐步走向消失;全要素生产率总体呈现波动下降趋势,且自2011年以后降至1以下,凸显全要素生产率增长日渐放缓。基于同期相关分析、不同提前期以及不同随机时点的时变脉冲分析均发现,人口红利渐失以及技术进步放缓均是导致中国低利率演化的重要因素。研究认为,建立高效的人力资本培育与科技创新体系以扭转经济增长动能转弱态势,加快实体经济结构性改革以培育经济增长新动能,加强多政策工具协调配合而非盲目降低利率,是应对利率下限约束和避免陷入超低利率困境的可行举措。

In recent years,China’s economy has shown a trend of“three lows and one high”,and macro-policy control has been trapped in the dilemma of“low interest rate”,which may lead to the risk of“long-term stagnation”in macro-economy.Based on this,this paper constructs a TVP-VAR model to deeply explore the mystery of the formation of China’s“low interest rate”from the perspective of changes in economic growth momentum dominated by demographic dividend and technological progress.Based on the analysis of facts,it is found that China’s population structure is deteriorating and the total population size has begun to grow negatively in recent years,which objectively indicates that the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing.The overall total factor productivity showed a fluctuating downward trend and dropped below 1 since 2011,indicating that the growth of China’s total factor productivity has been slowing down in recent years.Based on the results of correlation analysis at the same time,impulse response analysis at different lead times and at different random time points,it is shown that the gradual loss of demographic dividend and the slowdown of technological progress are all important factors leading to the evolution of China’s low interest rate.This paper believes that establishing an efficient human capital cultivation system and innovation system to reverse the weakening of economic growth momentum,accelerating the structural reform of the real economy to cultivate new economic growth momentum,and strengthening the coordination and cooperation of multiple policy tools instead of blindly reducing interest rates are feasible measures to deal with the constraints of the effective interest rate lower bound and avoid falling into the dilemma of ultra-low interest rates.