中国新质生产力发展水平测度、时空演变及收敛性研究

Measurement,spatiotemporal evolution,and convergence research on the development level of China’s new quality productivity

明晰新质生产力现阶段的发展水平及其演变特征,有利于更好地推进新质生产力发展。运用熵权Topsis法、Dagum基尼系数、Markov链转移和收敛模型研究2015—2022年全国及四大区域中国新质生产力发展水平的发展水平、时空演变和收敛效应。研究发现:全国及四大区域的新质生产力发展水平呈上升趋势,呈现东高西低的空间格局,且全国及四大区域的组间、组内的差异呈缩小趋势,总体差异变化主要取决于区域间差异。同时,全国及四大区域的新质生产力发展水平存在σ收敛、β收敛,不同地区呈现出不同的空间效应和收敛周期,且对外开放、资本存量和政府支持程度对促进新质生产力发展水平收敛具有显著正向作用。定量研究我国新质生产力的发展水平并动态考察我国新质生产力发展水平演进情况和收敛情况,为未来推进新质生产力发展提供可参考性意见。

To accelerate the development of new quality productive forces,it is necessary to recognize the current level of development and its evolutionary characteristics of new quality productive forces.This article uses the entropy weighted Topsis method,Dagum Gini coefficient,Markov chain transfer and convergence model to study the development level,spatiotemporal evolution,and convergence effects of China’s new productive forces from 2015 to 2022 across the country and four major regions.Research has found that the development level of new quality productivity in the whole country and the four major regions is on the rise,showing a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west,and the differences between and within groups in the whole country and the four major regions are narrowing.The overall change in differences mainly depends on regional differences.At the same time,the development level of new quality productivity across the country and the four major regions still existsσConvergenceβConvergence,different regions exhibit different spatial effects and convergence cycles,and opening up to the outside world,capital stock,and government support have a significant positive effect on promoting the convergence of the development level of new quality productivity.By conducting quantitative research on the development level of new quality productivity in China and dynamically examining the evolution and convergence of the development level of new quality productivity,this study provides reference opinions for promoting the development of new quality productivity in the future.