基于反事实的非因果解释研究

Research on Non-causal Explanation Based on Counterfactual

反事实情形下的非因果解释理论能够在解释实践中更好地实现解释力,在解释的反事实理论、结构模型解释、最优模型解释等非因果解释理论中均存在反事实。但反事实与非因果解释的结合并不充分,反事实在应用于非因果解释的过程中,引发了非因果解释的不对称问题、过分覆盖问题,以及基于反事实无法涵盖所有类型非因果解释的问题。解决这些问题的关键在于坚持多元干预自由主义的解释立场,解释多元论与结构方程模型的结合为上述解释案例所出现的问题提供了可能的解决方案,从而实现对非因果解释的合理性辩护。

In the case of counterfactual,the theory of non-causal explanation can better achieve explanatory power in the practice of explanation,and there are counterfactuals in the theories of non-causal explanation such as the counterfactual theory of explanation,structural model explanation and optimality model explanation.However,the combination of counterfactual and non-causal explanation is not sufficient.In the process of applying counterfactual to non-causal explanation,the problem of asymmetry and overcoverage of non-causal explanation are caused,and the problem that all types of non-causal explanation cannot be covered based on counterfactual.The key to solving these problems is to adhere to the explanatory stance of pluralistic intervention liberalism.The combination of explanatory pluralism and structural equation models provides a possible solution to the problems arising from the above explanatory cases,thus realizing the rationality defense of non-causal explanations.