复盘2008年我国经济刺激计划的推出及退出背景

Reviewing the launch and withdrawal of China's economic stimulus program in 2008

中国2008年危机应对政策之所以快进快出,主要是因为危机前遭遇了经济过热、通货膨胀的压力,危机后前述问题又有所抬头,这与当前美国的情形有些类似。当时美国退得比中国慢,是因为美国经济恢复不及中国。而且,经历短暂退坡后,随着经济增长放缓、通胀下滑,中国财政货币政策又逐渐加力,但这没有从根本上扭转新常态下中国经济的调整趋势,其中就有“前期刺激政策消化期”的影响。前述比较表明,没有无痛的选择,任何政策选择都是利弊权衡和目标取舍,需要趋利避害。

The reason why China's crisis response policies in 2008 were implemented and withdrawn swiftly was primarily due to the precrisis economic overheating and inflationary pressure,which resurfaced after the crisis.At that time,the United States retreated its stimulus slower than China because its economic recovery lagged behind China's.Moreover,after a brief period of easing,with the economic slowdown and declining inflation,China's fiscal and monetary policy and gradually intensified again.However,this did not fundamentally reverse the trend of adjustment of China's economy under the new normal,partly due to"digestion period of the previous stimulus policies."The aforementioned comparison shows that there is no painless option,any policy choice involves weighing the pros and cons and making trade-offs between goals,requiring a strategy to seek advantage and avoid disadvantage.