中国经济社会零碳转型策略:增量式改进还是反推式变革

China’s Economic and Social Zero-Carbon Transition Strategy:Incremental Improvement or Reverse Change

面对全球气候变化引致的生态危机,加快零碳转型进程势在必行。大力发展清洁能源产业,推动化石能源有序减退是零碳转型策略的核心本质,相关工作仍处于起步阶段。文本在论述零碳转型策略的基础上,研判中国经济社会可行的零碳转型策略。研究发现:首先,零碳转型路径在清洁能源供需体系构建的“源、网、荷、储”等方面呈现多元化特征,目标本质是推动清洁能源实现高效地供需匹配。其次,现阶段各界对中国经济社会零碳转型策略的主张,大体可分为基于现有能源供需体系的增量式改进和直接颠覆现有能源供需体系的反推式变革,两者各有利弊,面临的挑战也存在差异。再次,决策者应理性看待零碳转型过程,既不能仅基于传统能源供需体系“缝缝补补”,也不能急于求成,毕其功于一役地推动变革。鉴于当前相关探索仍处于起步阶段,确定转型的具体方向为时尚早,各地需因地制宜,结合多元转型路径发展竞争情况制定零碳转型策略,遵循由量变到质变的客观规律,经历由预期不稳定、多元化的探索向预期稳定、目标确定的变革演变。最后,从长远看,各界应将零碳转型策略纳入经济社会整体性变革中加以思考,以生态文明发展范式变革推进零碳转型,以零碳转型助力生态文明发展范式变革,力求为推动碳中和能源革命提供启示与参考。

In the face of the ecological crisis caused by global climate change,it is imperative to accelerate the zero-carbon transition process.The core of this transition is to vigorously develop the clean energy industry and promote the orderly reduction of fossil energy.However,this process is still in its infancy,and the zero-carbon transition paths centered on the construction of a clean energy supply and demand system are diverse and unclear.This article aims to analyze the basis of the zero-carbon transition strategy and judge the possible zero-carbon transition strategy for Chinese economic society.The study concludes that:firstly,the zero-carbon transition paths in the construction of clean energy supply and demand systems in terms of“source,grid,load,and storage”are diversified,but the fundamental goal is to promote the efficient matching of clean energy supply and demand.Secondly,the current claims of the zero-carbon transition strategy for Chinese economic society can be roughly divided into incremental improvements based on the existing energy supply and demand system and reverse changes that directly subvert the existing energy supply and demand system.Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages,and the challenges they face will also differ.Thirdly,decision-makers should rationally view the zero-carbon transformation process,instead of taking a“patchwork”approach to the traditional energy supply and demand system,or being too eager for quick success and instant change.Since the current exploration is still in its infancy,it is too early to determine the specific direction of the transformation.The zero-carbon transformation strategy needs to be formulated according to local conditions in combination with the competitive situation of various transformation routes,following the objective law of quantitative change to qualitative change,and experiencing the evolution from unstable expectations and diversified exploration to stable expectations and determined goals.Finally,in the long run,all sectors of society should consider zero-carbon transition strategies as part of holistic economic and social transformations,leveraging the paradigm shift in ecological civilization development to drive the zero-carbon transition,and using the zero-carbon transition to support the transformative shift in the paradigm of ecological civilization development,striving to provide enlightenment and reference for promoting carbon neutrality and energy revolution.