基于改进领结模型的老旧小区改造项目风险管理探究

Risk Management Research of Modification Project for Old Residential Areas Based on Improved Bow-Tie Model

我国城市建设正在从“增量扩张”向“存量更新”转型,其中老旧小区改造已成为“十四五”规划中有关城市更新中的一项重要惠民举措,但老旧小区改造过程中存在诸多风险,一定程度上阻碍了城市更新的进程,故有必要系统地展开老旧小区改造项目风险识别、评价及管理相关研究。本文提出一种老旧小区改造风险管理方案,首先通过文献梳理及专家咨询较全面地归纳出当前老旧小区改造中潜在的风险因素;然后,构建老旧小区改造风险识别管理方法,即在老旧小区改造项目风险识别的基础上,采用Borda序值法对项目中风险因素的重要程度进行定量化排序,运用改进领结模型对涵盖重要风险因素的施工场景展开研究,分析施工过程中可能发生的事故,并设置预防和缓解屏障以降低事故发生概率和减轻后果影响。最后,以S市某老旧小区改造实际项目风险评价管理为研究案例,测试了本文构建的老旧小区改造风险识别与管理方法的有效性、可行性。

Urban construction in China is transitioning from"incremental expansion"to"stock renewal".Among these efforts,the renovation of old residential neighborhoods has become a key policy initiative in the 14th Five-Year Plan aimed at benefiting urban residents.However,the process of renovating old residential neighborhoods faces numerous risks that hinder urban renewal progress to a certain extent.Therefore,it is necessary to systematically conduct research on the identification,evaluation,and management of risks associated with the renovation of old residential neighborhoods.This paper proposes a risk management framework for the renovation of old residential neighborhoods.Firstly,through literature review and expert consultations,potential risk factors in current old neighborhood renovations are comprehensively summarized.Secondly,a method for identifying and managing risks in the renovation of old residential neighborhoods is constructed.This involves quantifying the importance of risk factors in renovation projects through the Borda ranking method,and using an improved fault tree model to study construction scenarios that encompass critical risk factors.This analysis aims to identify potential accidents during construction processes and establish preventive and mitigating measures to reduce the probability of accidents and mitigate their consequences.Finally,using a case study of a practical renovation project in City S,the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method for identifying and managing risks in the renovation of old residential neighborhoods are tested.