绿色金融如何影响新型工业化发展?

How does Green Finance Affect the Development of New Industri⁃alization?

基于2011—2022年我国30个省份的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型和面板门槛模型,实证分析绿色金融对新型工业化发展的影响。实证结果表明,绿色金融能够显著促进中国新型工业化发展,且具有正向溢出效应,同时绿色金融对新型工业化发展的促进作用先增后减;机制检验表明,绿色金融可通过促进绿色技术创新和产业结构升级来提升新型工业化水平;异质性分析表明,在非绿色金融改革创新试验区,绿色金融能显著促进新型工业化发展,同时当新型工业化发展处于中级水平时以及在自由贸易试验区,绿色金融对新型工业化发展的促进作用更强。

Currently,China has established itself as the country with the most robust indus-trial system globally.However,its industrial development still encounters challenges such as the underdeveloped foundation of high-tech industries and environmentally unfriendly production methods.The advancement of new industrial development is crucial for promoting the construc-tion of a modern industrial system,as it can effectively leverage digital technology to facilitate in-dustrial upgrading and low-carbon development.Additionally,financial support plays a pivotal role in industrial development,particularly in green financial development which directly im-pacts the progress of China's new industry.Based on the aforementioned considerations,this study meticulously selected a panel dataset encompassing 30 provinces in China,extending from 2011 to 2022.Employing the spatial Durbin model and the panel threshold model,we conducted an empirical investigation into the influence of green finance on the advancement of new indus-tries.Initially,we created a technical distance matrix and a technical geography nested matrix to analyze the evolution of China's new industries from both overall and regional perspectives.Sub-sequently,these matrices were employed to elucidate the impact of green finance on the develop-ment of new industries.The empirical findings corroborate that green finance significantly fos-ters the development of new industries in China and has a positive spillover effect.To delve into the nonlinear association between green finance and the emergence of new industries,we ad-opted the spatial Durbin model and the panel threshold model for further analysis.Our results in-dicate that the bolstering effects of green finance on new industrial establishments initially in-crease and then diminish.Through robustness tests,we confirmed the reliability of our conclu-sions.Then,from the vantage point of green technology innovation and industrial restructuring,this paper delved into the functional mechanism through which green finance affects the ad-vancement of new industries.The empirical examination reveals that green finance can enhance the development of new industries by fostering green technological innovation and facilitating in-dustrial restructuring.Furthermore,the study meticulously categorized green technological inno-vations into innovative and practical advancements,and industrial restructuring into rationaliza-tion and sophistication.It evaluated the influence of these distinct categories on the interplay be-tween green finance and burgeoning industry growth.The findings indicate that the causal ef-fects of innovative and practical green technologies,alongside advanced industrial metamorpho-sis,are pronounced,whereas the impact of industrial rationalization on this relationship is negli-gible.Finally,the research conducted a heterogeneity analysis from the vantage points of green fi-nancial reform pilot zones,the level of new industrial development,and free trade pilot areas.The findings suggest that green finance exerts a significant impetus on the development of new indus-tries in regions outside reform pilot zones,across primary and secondary industrial tiers,and within free trade pilot zones.In sum,the investigation contributes substantially to theoretical dis-course and informs policy-making in the domain of green finance and new industrial development.