“双碳”背景下中国省级碳排放时空特征及效率评价

Temporal and spatial characteristics and efficiency evaluation of carbon emissions at provincial level in China under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

“双碳”背景下,掌握近期中国省级碳排放呈现出的时空特征及碳效率情况是必要的。首先核算“十三五”时期中国省级行政单元的碳排放量,再利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术分析总结出时空特征,最后利用产出导向型的DEA-BCC模型对省域碳效率进行评价,并分析了制约因素。结果表明:(1)各省域碳排等级相对稳定,降碳增效无法立竿见影;(2)碳排放在空间上呈现出“东高西低,北高南低”的分布特征,且部分省域碳排等级变化存在一定的“空间关联效应”;(3)碳效率还有较大提升空间,部分省域存在资源过度投入、现行生产规模并非最优的问题。据此提出加强顶层设计与全局谋划、精准识别降碳增效中心省域、加强区域间降碳合作的建议,以助力“双碳”目标的按期实现。

Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,it is necessary to grasp the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions and carbon efficiency at provincial level in China recently.Firstly,carbon emissions of provincial administrative units in China during the 13th Five-Year Plan period were calculated,and then geographic information system(GIS)technology was used to analyze and summarize their temporal and spatial characteristics based on the accounting results.Finally,the output oriented DEA-BCC model was used to evaluate the provincial carbon efficiency and analyze the constraints.The results showed that:(1)the carbon emission level of each province was relatively stable,and the effect of carbon reduction could not be achieved immediately.(2)The spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions are"high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south",and the variation of carbon emissions in some provinces has certain spatial correlation effect.(3)There is still a large room for improvement in carbon efficiency.Some provinces have the problems of over-investment of resources and the current production scale is not optimal.Therefore,suggestions are put forward to strengthen top-level design and overall planning,accurately identify carbon reduction and efficiency center provinces,and strengthen inter-regional carbon reduction cooperation,so as to help realize the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goal as soon as possible.