气候变化情景下中国区域柑橘大实蝇潜在分布区域预估

Prediction of Potential Distribution of Bactrocera Minax in China under Future Climate Change Scenarios

基于柑橘大实蝇当前在中国199个分布点和11个关键环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型预测当前(1970—2000年)及未来(2041—2060年、2081—2100年)三种气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)对柑橘大实蝇在中国潜在分布的影响。结果表明:模型AUC值为0.967,预测精度准确。利用刀切法得到影响柑橘大实蝇潜在分布的主要环境变量为最干季平均气温(Bio9)、年平均降水量(Bio12)、气温年较差(Bio7)、最干月份降水量(Bio14)。当前柑橘大实蝇适生区位于24.1°~34.6°N、101.1°~122.9°E之间,高适生区主要集中在贵州、四川、湖北、湖南、重庆、云南等地。未来气候情景下,柑橘大实蝇潜在适生区面积明显增加,呈现由当前位置向四周并伴随跨越式向新疆、山西、西藏等高海拔或高纬度地区扩张且向东西两侧收缩的趋势;适生区分布中心向东北迁移趋势明显,辐射情景模式越强,向高纬度迁移越明显;在2090年SSP2-4.5气候情景下,柑橘大实蝇适生区总面积达到最大值167.43万km^(2)。气候变暖有利于柑橘大实蝇的生长繁育和种群扩张,严重威胁中国柑橘产区生态安全,特别是目前尚未发现柑橘大实蝇的地区需提高警惕,加强柑橘大实蝇预测预报、检疫和防控。

Based on the current 199 sites of the Bactrocera minax in China and 11 environmental variables,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)was used to predict the current and future(2050s and 2090s)impact of this pest under three climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results show that the 0.967 AUC of the model is good and reliable.The main environmental variables estimated by the Jackknife method are the mean temperature of driest quarter(Bio9),the annual precipitation(Bio12),the temperature annual range(Bio7),and the precipitation of the driest month(Bio14).In current,the suitable regions of Bactrocera minax are between 24.1°~34.6°N and 101.1°~122.9°E,and the highly suitable regions are mainly concentrated in Guizhou,Sichuan,Hubei,Hunan,Chongqing,Yunnan.Under the future climate scenarios,the potential suitable areas will increase significantly,expanding to the surrounding areas,the high altitude and latitude regions of Xinjiang,Shanxi and Tibet with a leap-forward trend and contracting to the east and west areas.The potentially suitable regions center will migrate to the northeast obviously with a higher radiation scenario.The suitable region will be the largest(1.6743 million km^(2))under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario in 2090s.Climate change is very beneficial to the spread of Bactrocera minax and threaten the ecological security of citrus producing in China.The main citrus producing provinces,especially the areas where Bactrocera minax have not been found,need to be vigilant and strengthen the predictions and prevention.