中国能源消费差异化碳减排潜能分析

Analysis of differentiated carbon emission reduction potential of energy consumption in China

科学降低碳排放、杜绝“运动式减碳”等,已成为共建低碳社会的关键所在。本研究从切实促进碳减排、助力早日实现碳中和的角度出发,通过收集整理各省在“十一五”到“十三五”期间的能源消费数据,结合全国不透水面遥感监测数据等,对近15年我国能源消费及其碳排放的时空演变特征等进行分析,并利用所提出的碳排放水平评估指数(carbon emission level estimation,CELE),开展省域能源消费的碳减排潜能分析。结果显示,青海、山西、云南、甘肃和宁夏一直处于CELE高值区,黑龙江、吉林、天津、安徽和江西省一直处于CELE低值区,山东、福建、广西、海南的CELE指数则呈逐年递增状态,而吉林、湖南、重庆、贵州的CELE指数呈逐年递减状态。综合各省能源消耗及其碳排放现状和时空演变规律,以及CELE指数的测度结果可知,目前急需减排的省份主要包括山西、山东和广东,其次是辽宁、湖北和新疆;贵州、内蒙古在“十二五”期间碳减排成效显著,目前处于中等压力区;青海、甘肃、宁夏和云南因为人口数和建设用地均较少等,导致其CELE指数以及人均碳排放和地均碳排放都明显高于其他省份,对于它们的能源消费碳减排问题也需予以密切关注。

Scientific reduction of carbon emissions and elimination of“campaign-style carbon reduction”become the key to building a low-carbon society.From the perspective of promoting carbon emission reduction and helping to achieve carbon neutrality as soon as possible,we collected and organized energy consumption data from provinces during the period from the 11 th Five-Year Plan to the 13 th Five-Year Plan,combined the user questionnaires and national impervious surface remote sensing monitoring data,and analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of energy consumption and its carbon emission in the past 15 years.The proposed carbon emission level estimation(CELE)index was used to analyze the carbon emission reduction potential of provincial energy consumption.The results show that five provinces,including Qinghai,Shanxi,Yunnan,Gansu and Ningxia,have been in the high CELE zone,while Heilongjiang,Jilin,Tianjin,Anhui and Jiangxi provinces have been in the low CELE zone,while the CELE indexes of Shandong,Fujian,Guangxi and Hainan have been increasing year by year,while the CELE indexes of Jilin,Hunan,Chongqing and Guizhou have been decreasing year by year.The current situation and spatial and temporal evolution of energy consumption and carbon emissions in each province,as well as the results of the CELE index,show that the provinces in urgent need of emission reduction mainly include Shanxi,Shandong and Guangdong,followed by Liaoning,Hubei and Xinjiang;Guizhou and Inner Mongolia have achieved significant results in carbon emission reduction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period and are now in the medium pressure zone;The four provinces of Qinghai,Gansu,Ningxia,and Yunnan have smaller population and construction land,resulting in a significantly higher CELE index,per capita carbon emissions,and per-site carbon emissions than other provinces,and their energy consumption carbon emission reduction issues need to be closely monitored.