自然灾害视角下农业保险对农业经济的影响研究——以甘肃为例

Study on the Impact of Agricultural Insurance on Agricultural Economy from the Perspective of Natural Disaster--A Case Study of Gansu Province

基于2007—2021年甘肃14个市州农业保险和农业经济发展的面板数据,运用固定效应模型,研究农业保险在降低自然灾害负向影响农业经济过程中所起的作用。实证分析结果显示:自然灾害会降低农业产出,对农业经济的发展有显著不利影响;在加入农业受灾率和农业保费收入交互项后,其回归系数为正且在1%水平下显著,证明农业保险的实施可有效降低自然灾害对农业经济的负面影响;从省级层面来看,甘肃农业保险的实施不存在显著道德风险,这也是农业保险发挥正向作用的前提条件。

Based on the panel data of agricultural insurance development and agricultural economic development in 14 cities and autonomous prefectures of Gansu Province from 2007 to 2021,this paper uses the fixed effect model to study the negative impact of agricultural insurance on reducing natural disasters on agricultural economy.The empirical analysis results show that:1)Natural disasters can reduce agricultural output and have significant adverse effects on the development of agricultural economy.2)After adding the interaction term of agricultural disaster rate and agricultural insurance premium income,the regression coefficient is positive and significant at the level of 1%,which proves that the implementation of agricultural insurance can effectively reduce the negative impact of natural disasters on agricultural economy.3)From the provincial level,there is no significant moral hazard in the implementation of agricultural insurance in Gansu Province,which is also the prerequisite for agricultural insurance to play a positive role.