天然气管网供气可靠性评价及优化研究进展

Review on Assessment and Optimization of the Supply Reliability of Natural Gas Networks

管道作为连接气源与市场的关键纽带,是天然气大规模、长距离输运的最经济输送方式。在天然气管网高度互联互通、市场化运营的背景下,传统保供方法将难以适应天然气资源灵活高效调配需要,成为制约天然气管网安全、高效保供的瓶颈。围绕天然气管网供气可靠性评价的3个关键问题:可靠性评价指标、可靠性评价模型和可靠性评价模型求解,分析了国内外在供气可靠性领域的研究现状和挑战。梳理了可靠性优化在系统规划设计、调峰优化、需求侧管理的应用现状,总结了供气可靠性优化技术在面临人工智能技术发展、天然气市场变革、多网互联融合的发展前景与建议,为天然气管网供气可靠性评价及优化提供了理论借鉴。

As the key link between gas sources and markets,pipeline is the most economical way for large-scale and long-distance transportation of natural gas.In the context of highly interconnected and market-oriented operations within natural gas networks,traditional supply assurance methods will face challenges in adapting to the demand for flexible and efficient resource allocation,which restricts the safety and efficient supply of natural gas networks.Three key issues of gas supply reliability assessment include:supply reliability index,supply reliability model and solving methods of supply reliability model.The current processes and challenges in the field of gas supply reliability at home and abroad are summarized.The current applications of reliability optimization in system planning and design,peak optimization,and demand-side management are reviewed.Furthermore,the prospects and suggestions of gas supply reliability optimization technology is proposed,in the face of the development of artificial intelligence technology,the reform of natural gas market,and the integration of multi-network interconnections.It provides guideline for the evaluation of gas supply reliability assessment and optimization to the natural gas pipeline networks.