基于Biomod2组合模型对入侵害虫杏鬃球蚧的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Habitat Areas for the Invasive Pest Sphaerolecanium prunastri Based on Biomod2 Combined Model

[目的]杏鬃球蚧作为新入侵新疆野果林的多食性害虫,具备繁殖速度快、繁殖量大和扩散迅猛等特征,凸显其在生态系统中具备显著的生态适应性和竞争优势。其不仅对野杏危害严重,还对野果林及当地果园的生态环境和生物多样性造成重大威胁。通过建立并比较不同类型影响因素下的物种分布模型获得杏鬃球蚧更准确的适生区分布。[方法]通过R语言Biomod2包集成建立物种分布模型(SDM),分别对仅基于气候因素和基于寄主和气候因素两种模式下的杏鬃球蚧分布格局进行预测,以期为入侵害虫制定综合防控策略提供理论依据。[结果]添加生物变量后的生态位结果与实际分布结果相符,剔除了仅基于气候因素下杏鬃球蚧在沙漠地区的扩张范围,避免了预测结果基础生态位比实际生态位大的问题,预测结果准确率更高,因此选用添加寄主因素的预测结果用于分析。在添加寄主因素后当前总适生区面积15.06×10^(5)km^(2),主要分布在与哈萨克斯坦交界处、天山北脉博罗科努山北麓和伊犁河谷等地;在2090s时期SSP5-85情景下总适生面积达到最大45.31×10^(5)km^(2)。在未来不同的气候情景下,杏鬃球蚧的总适生区均呈不同幅度的扩张趋势,在伊犁哈萨克自治州、博尔塔拉蒙古自治州、昌吉回族自治州、阿勒泰地区等地适生性显著提高。[结论]本研究构建的7种单一模型的组合模型,其AUC平均值达到0.97,TSS平均值达到0.88,预测准确度高;在添加寄主因素后适生区与实际更吻合,结果较仅添加气候因子更为可靠;预测结果为杏鬃球蚧在新疆的预警、监控和防治提供科学参考。

[Purpose]Sphaerolecanium prunastri Boyer de Fonscolombe,as a polyphagous pest in wild fruit forests in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,exhibits notable characteristics such as fast reproduction,high reproductive rates,and rapid dissemination.These features highlight its substantial ecological adaptability and competitive edge in the ecosystem.Notably,it poses a severe threat not only to Prunus armeniaca L.,commonly known as wild apricot,but also to the ecological environment and biodiversity of the wild fruit forests and local orchards.To obtain a more precise habitat distribution for S.prunastri,species distribution models were established and compared under various types of influencing factors.[Methods]This study,integrating the R programming language with the Biomod2 package,species distribution models(SDMs)were established to predict the distribution patterns of S.prunastri:one only including climatic variables and the other incorporating climatic variables and host factors.[Results]The ecological niche results,incorporating biological variables,were consistent with actual distribution patterns.This approach eliminated the overestimation issue observed when using only climatic variables,leading to higher predictive accuracy.Therefore,the predictions based on the inclusion of host factors were selected for analysis.With the addition of host factors,the current total suitable habitat area was 15.06×10^(5)km^(2),mainly distributed near the border with Kazakhstan,the northern foothills of the Tian Shan Mountains,and the lli River Valley.Under the SSP5-85 scenario in 2090s,the total suitable habitat area reached a maximum of 45.31×10^(5)km^(2).Under different future climate scenarios,the total suitable habitat area for S.prunastri showed varying degrees of expansion,with significantly improved suitability observed in areas such as the lli Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture,Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture,Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,and Altay Region.[Conclusion]The ensemble model comprising seven individual models constructed in this study had an average AUC value of 0.97 and an average TSS value of 0.88,indicating high predictive accuracy.After introducing the host factors to the distribution model,the suitable habitat was more consistent with the actual situation,and the result was more reliable than only considering the climate factor.These predictions offer a scientific basis for the early warning,monitoring,and management of S.prunastri in Xinjiang.