1998—2022年安徽土地资源承载力时空演变研究

Temporal-spatial Evolution of Land Resources Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province from 1998 to 2022

基于1998—2022年的相关数据,通过耕地压力模型和土地资源承载力模型,分析安徽土地资源承载力的时空演变。结果表明:最小人均耕地面积整体呈下降趋势。耕地压力指数呈现波动下行的态势,从预警压力状态进入无压力状态。土地资源承载力指数总体下行,状态从人粮平衡区的平衡有余级升至粮食盈余区的富裕级。土地资源承载力指数则主要位于粮食盈余区和人粮平衡区,多市虽向好发展,但合肥、黄山等的状况持续恶化;各市土地资源承载力指数空间分布具有高值和低值集聚特征,土地资源承载力驱动因素按重要性由大及小依次为耕地面积、人均粮食占有量、城镇化率、地形位指数、农业水资源量。依据分析结果,应采取合理规划国土空间人口分布、转变耕地利用方式和构建与土地资源承载力相匹配的农业布局等措施,以促进土地资源承载力的可持续发展。

Using relevant data from 1998 to 2022,the temporal and spatial evolution of land resource-carrying capacity in Anhui Province was analyzed through the cultivated land pressure model and land resource-carrying capacity model.The results show that the overall per capita cultivated land area has decreased.The cultivated land pressure index shows a fluctuating downward trend,transitioning from a warning pressure state to a state without pressure.The land resource carrying capacity index is generally declining,with the state shifting from the surplus level of balancing between population and grain to the affluent level of grain surplus areas.The land resource carrying capacity index is mainly located in grain surplus areas and areas with a balance between population and grain,with most cities showing positive development.However,the conditions in Hefei and Huangshan continue to deteriorate.The spatial distribution of the land resource carrying capacity index in each city exhibits specific characteristics of high-value and low-value clustering.The driving factors of land resources carrying capacity in order of importance from greatest to least are arable land area,per capita food possession,urbanization rate,terrain position index,and agricultural water resources.Based on the results of analysis,measures such as adopting rational planning for land use and population distribution,transforming the utilization of cultivated land,and establishing an agricultural layout that matches the land resource carrying capacity should be taken to promote the sustainable development of land resource carrying capacity.