基于AIS数据的长三角沿海地区船舶碳排放估算与分析

Estimation and analysis of carbon emissions from ships in the Yangtze River Delta coastal region based on AIS data

长三角地区涵盖上海、江苏、浙江和安徽,作为中国经济腾飞的关键推动力,在我国的经济繁荣中发挥着至关重要的作用.随着经济的快速发展,碳排放问题逐渐显现,其中,船舶碳排放成为环境挑战的一项重要议题.船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据作为记录船舶活动的有力工具,提供了精确量化碳排放的手段.本文利用2016年AIS船舶数据,借助船舶交通排放评估模型(Steam)对长三角周边海域的全年船舶碳排放量进行精细估算,并从船舶类型、排放源、航行状态等时空角度对全年碳排放特征进行详尽分析.结果显示,2016年长三角沿海区域的二氧化碳总排放量估计为1258万t,其中,货船贡献了67%的碳排放,而巡航和低速巡航状态下的船舶碳排放量占长三角沿海区域水域碳总排放量的1/2以上.船舶碳排放的变化趋势与季节性、气候和社会等多种因素密切相关.由于春节期间贸易活动相对减少,航运需求下降,船舶运输量减少,因此,1—2月的碳排放量最低,大约分别为78万t和56万t.而9—11月气候适宜,航运需求增大,这几个月的船舶活动最为明显,其中,10月达到全年船舶碳排放的高峰,大约为145万t.长三角沿海区域碳排放量较高的主要区域大多位于港口地带,尤其是上海港、宁波舟山港及长江口区域的碳排放最为显著.本研究对长三角沿海区域船舶碳排放的规律进行了深入剖析,为加深对该问题的理解和采取有效措施应对船舶碳排放问题提供了有益的参考和指导.这项研究不仅为未来相关研究奠定了基础,还可用于与历史或未来的船舶排放数据进行比较,并为制定船舶排放监管行动提供支持.

The Yangtze River Delta,comprising Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui provinces,plays a pivotal role in driving China's economic growth.However,the rapid economic development has led to heightened concerns about carbon emissions,particularly those emanating from ships which pose significant environmental challenges.Utilizing Automatic Identification System(AIS)data and the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model(Steam),this study presents a method for accurately quantifying carbon emissions by analysing the annual carbon emissions of ships in the waters around the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)in 2016.The characteristics of annual carbon emissions are analysed from the spatial and temporal perspectives considering ship types,emission sources and sailing conditions.The results show that the total carbon dioxide emissions in the coastal region of the YRD were estimated to be 12.58 million tonnes in 2016,with cargo ships contributing 67%of these emissions.Notably,emissions from ships in cruising and low-speed cruising states accounted for over half of the total emissions in the coastal waters. Carbon dioxide emissions from ships are closely linked to a number of factors, including seasonality, climate and societal dynamics. For instance, due to the relative decrease in trading activities during the Chinese New Year, the demand for shipping and vessel traffic decreases, resulting in the lowest carbon emissions in January- February at around 780000 and 560000 tonnes respectively. In contrast, September-November, with favourable weather and increased shipping demand, witnesses peak shipping activity, with October reaching the peak of carbon emissions at around 1.45 million tonnes. Most of the hotspots of carbon emissions in the coastal region of the Yangtze River Delta are located in port areas, especially Shanghai Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port and the Yangtze River estuary area. This study presents an in-depth analysis of the patterns of carbon emissions from ships in the coastal region of the Yangtze River Delta, providing valuable insights and guidance for a deeper understanding of the issue and the formulation of effective measures to address the issue of carbon emissions from ships. Furthermore, this study lays a foundation for future research endeavours and can serve as a benchmark for comparing with historical or future ship emission data, supporting the development of regulatory policies to mitigate ship emissions.