我国氟碳化学品类非二氧化碳温室气体的深度脱碳潜力研究

Exploring the potential for deep decarbonization of non-CO_(2) greenhouse gases in China:In-depth study on fluorocarbons

“双碳”背景下,主要温室气体二氧化碳的排放控制备受关注,其减排目标和路径也较为清晰,但对于《京都议定书》包含的其他温室气体关注相对较少.尽管《蒙特利尔议定书》及其修正案已明确了氟碳化学品类非二氧化碳温室气体如氢氯氟烃(HCFCs)和氢氟烃(HFCs)的削减计划,但现阶段仍在大量生产使用,且含有这些物质的产品或设备(如家用冰箱空调、工商制冷设备和建材泡沫等)使用寿命较长,可能会造成滞后的臭氧层破坏或气候变化影响.本研究结合自下而上的清单数据分析,采用动态物质流模型系统估算和预测了1990—2060年我国耐用产品和设备中HCFCs和HFCs的总体排放量,并评估了其导致的气候变化影响.结果表明,这两大类非二氧化碳温室气体的直接排放量将于2025年前后达到峰值(22.5±2.0)万t·a^(-1),二氧化碳当量约为(4.0±0.3)亿t·a^(-1),非干预条件下2023—2060年累积排放量可达(79±7)亿t二氧化碳当量,但若采取有效的监管手段和先进回收处理技术,报废阶段减排量最高可达70%.进一步加强氟碳化学品的排放控制,特别是废弃阶段的排放控制仍是环境保护主管部门亟待解决的突出难题.

Mitigation of carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emission-as the primary greenhouse gases-has received extensive attentions subject the“Dual Carbon”goals,and there are clear reduction targets and strategies.However,there is relatively less work on addressing other greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol.While the phase-out plans for Hydro chlorofluorocarbons(HCFCs)and hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs)outlined in the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are explicit,they have been still produced and consumed in large quantities.These substances persist in various durable products and equipment such as household refrigerators,air conditioners,industrial and commercial refrigeration systems,and building insulation foams due to their long lifespans.This bank can lead to delayed ozone depletion and climate change impacts.This study therefore employs a bottom-up inventory data analysis combined with a dynamic material flow model,to estimate and project the mass emissions of HCFCs and HFCs from durable products and equipment in China during 1990—2060.Our results indicate that the emissions of these two non-CO_(2) greenhouse gases are projected to peak around 2025 by approximately(225±20)kilotons per year under the business-as-usual(BAU)scenario,resulting in global warming potential (GWP) value reaching (400±30) million metric tons (×10^(6) t) of CO_(2) equivalent (CO_(2)e) per year;their cumulative emissions are projected to reach (7.9±7.0) billion metric tons (×10^(9) t) CO_(2)e during the period of 2023-2060. Scenario analysis demonstrates that implementing state-of-the-art collection, recycling and disposal treatment systems can potentially reduce cumulative GWP-weighted emission by up to 70% compared to the BAU scenario. Strengthening emission control measures for these fluorocarbons remains a prominent challenge for environmental management.