从经济自由主义到经济民族主义--基于能力与意愿视角的美国贸易政策分析

From Economic Liberalism to Economic Nationalism:An Analysis of U.S.Trade Policy from the Perspective of Capability and Willingness

冷战结束以来,美国贸易政策的指导思想逐渐由以克林顿政府时期为代表的经济自由主义,向以特朗普政府时期为代表的经济民族主义转变。美国贸易政策向经济民族主义转变的背后有着复杂的内外动因,对此,本文提出“能力+意愿”的解释框架。其中,能力是条件,维护国家安全、提升自身实力和主导创建国际贸易机制这三大能力的强弱,决定着美国推行不同贸易政策的底气;意愿是动机,形塑一国对外政策的性质与方向。强大的能力与积极的意愿的双重加持,促使克林顿政府以经济自由主义指导美国贸易政策的实践。而基于能力下降这一判断的消极意愿,则促使经济民族主义取代经济自由主义,成为特朗普政府时期指导美国贸易政策的主导思想。拜登政府虽然谋求更正特朗普政府的部分激进举措,但实际上延续了以经济民族主义为核心的美国贸易政策。

Since the end of the Cold War,the guiding ideology of U.S.trade policy has gradually shifted from economic liberalism represented by the Clinton administration to economic nationalism represented by the Trump administration.There are complex internal and external motivations behind the shift of U.S.trade policy towards economic nationalism.In this regard,this paper proposes an explanatory framework of“capability+willingness”.Among them,capability is the condition and the degree of three major ways of safeguarding national security,improving its own strength,and leading the creation of international trade mechanisms determines the confidence of the United States in implementing different trade policies.And willingness is the motivation,shaping the nature and direction of a country's foreign policy.The dual support of strong capability and positive willingness prompted the Clinton administration to guide American trade policy practice with economic liberalism.However,negative willingness based on a judgment of declining capability prompted economic nationalism to replace economic liberalism as the dominant ideology guiding U.S.trade policy during the Trump administration.Although the Biden administration sought to correct some of the Trump administration's radical measures,it actually continued the U.S.trade policy centered on economic nationalism.