摘要
本研究利用经济合作与发展组织(OECD)最新公布的2016年区分企业所有权性质的国家间投入产出表,基于反事实分析方法模拟测算美国电子信息行业和全行业不同程度切断对中国的中间品供应而给产业链下游部门带来的产出影响,以此分析中国制造业对美国中间品的供应链依赖效应,同时警示中美脱钩所引致的中国制造业供应链断裂风险。
This study utilizes the latest inter-country input-output tables distinguishing enterprise ownership released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)in 2016.Based on the counterfactual analysis method,this study sets up different scenarios for supply chain disruptions between the U.S.and China.The output impacts of the disruptions on downstream manufacturing industries in China are calculated to evaluate the dependence of China manufacturing on the U.S.supply chain,particularly on the U.S.electronic information industry supply chain.The study also alerts to the possible supply chain crisis caused by Sino-US decoupling.
作者
李鑫茹
蒋雪梅
杨翠红
LI Xin-ru;JIANG Xue-mei;YANG Cui-hong(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期13-36,共24页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71873091,72273093,72003133,71974183,71988101)
国家社会科学基金资助重大项目(20&ZD055,19ZDA062)
北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9214023)。
关键词
供应链依赖
中间品进口
中美脱钩
电子产业链
supply chain dependency
intermediate goods import
Sino-US decoupling
electronic industry links
