发展中大国“先富带后富”效应的计量评价——基于中国省级面板数据的非线性最小二乘法估计

Quantitative Evaluation of the"Prosperity Trickle-down"Effect in Large Developing Countries:A Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

中国是代表性发展中大国,具有典型区域二元结构特征,强化“先富带后富”效应对于推动二元区域共同富裕具有重要意义。利用我国省级面板数据,基于引入空间地理权重矩阵的非线性最小二乘法,计量评价省际“先富带后富”效应并检验地理距离衰减规律。研究发现:我国存在显著的省际“先富带后富”效应,先富省份人均实际GDP每提升1个单位能带动后富省份人均GDP提高0.1899个单位,稳健性检验和反事实检验后依然成立。“先富带后富”效应符合地理距离衰减规律,形成平滑式和跳跃式两种类型且存在地理阈值差异。先富省份之间存在正外部性的发展带动效应;我国东部和中部地区的区域性增长极具备“先富带后富”效应,且中部地区强于东部地区。

China,as a representative developing country,exhibits typkal characteristics of a dual regional structure.Strengthening the"prosperty trickle-down"effect is crucial forpromoting common prosperity across dual regions.Utilizing provincial panel data and based on the nónlinear least squares method incorporating a spatial geographi weight matrix,this study quamtitatively evaluates the interprovincial"Prosperity trickle-down"eifect and examines the law of geog raphic distance decay.The study finds significant interprovincial"prosperity trickle-down"effect in China.Each unit increase in the per capita real GDP of the wealthier provinces can drive an increase of 0.1899 units in the Per capita GDP of the less prosperous provinces.This result remains robust after robustness tests and counterfactual tests.The"prosperity trickle-down"effect conforms to the law of geographk distance decay,forming two types smooth and jump-like with differences in geographic thresholds.There is a positive externality effect of development among the wealthier provinces.The regional growth poles in the eastern and central regions of China exhibit the"prospcrity trickle-down"effect.with the central region bcing stronger than the eastern region.