北极航线开通背景下中俄双边服务贸易潜力实证研究--基于扩展的贸易引力模型

Empirical Study on the Potential of China-Russia Bilateral Services Trade in the Context of the Opening of the Arctic Route:Based on the extended trade gravity model

为在北极航线开通背景下挖掘中俄双边服务贸易潜力,文章选取2006—2020年贸易数据,定量分析中国和俄罗斯服务贸易总体发展状况、贸易结构以及竞争性,并利用贸易引力模型对中俄双边服务贸易潜力进行实证研究。区别于已有研究,文章通过测算成本距离和引入解释变量(人口规模、是否加入自由贸易协定),提出扩展的贸易引力模型,进而估算中俄双边服务贸易潜力系数,并提出政策建议。结果表明:中俄双边服务贸易发展势头强劲,属于潜力巨大型;中俄两国服务贸易结构不合理,在全球竞争中处于劣势地位;推动以“东北-远东”为代表的中俄地区间合作,会降低距离成本,促进中俄海洋服务贸易合作;新冠疫情阻碍传统服务贸易发展的同时,促进以互联网为依托的新兴服务贸易发展,推动服务贸易结构转型升级。

To tap the potential of China-Russia bilateral services trade under the background of the opening of the Arctic route,this paper quantitatively analyzes the overall development situation of services trade,trade structure,and competitiveness of China and Russia,and adopts a trade gravity model to conduct an empirical study on the potential of China-Russia bilateral services trade.Unlike previous studies,this paper measures the cost distance and introduces new variables(population size,whether to join the free trade agreement)and then puts forward extended trade gravity models for empirical research,thereby estimating the potential coefficient of China-Russia bilateral services trade and making policy recommendations.Results show that the bilateral services trade between China and Russia has a strong development momentum and belongs to the type with great potential.The services trade structure of China and Russia is not reasonable and is in a disadvantaged position in the global competition.Promoting inter-regional cooperation between China and Russia represented by“Northeast and Far East”will reduce the distance cost,thus promoting China-Russia maritime services trade cooperation;COVID-19 has hindered the development of traditional services trade,while it has promoted the development of Internet-based emerging services trade,thereby promoting the transformation and upgrading of services trade structure.