内蒙古自治区5个典型城市可吸入颗粒物暴露对居民每日死亡的影响

The impact of inhalable particulate matter exposure on daily mortality among residents in five typical cities in Inner Mongolia

目的探讨内蒙古自治区5个典型城市可吸入颗粒物(inhalable particulate matter,PM_(10))暴露对居民每日死亡的影响,筛选敏感人群,为相关部门制定空气污染防护措施提供依据。方法收集2017-2021年内蒙古自治区5个典型城市城区逐日气象资料、空气污染物浓度和居民死亡资料,采用二阶段统计分析策略(广义相加模型联合Meta分析),在控制气象因子和时间趋势等混杂因素的基础上构建时间序列模型,分析大气PM_(10)短期暴露对人群死亡的影响。结果5个典型城市大气PM_(10)日均浓度为(89.9±98.2)μg/m^(3),居民总死亡人数为126401人。Meta分析显示,移动平均lag0~2 d的PM_(10)暴露浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),总死亡、男性、女性和循环系统疾病死亡风险分别升高0.16%(95%CI:0.01%~0.36%)、0.13%(95%CI:0.01%~0.25%)、0.23%(95%CI:0.09%~0.37%)和0.21%(95%CI:0.08%~0.34%)。结论内蒙古自治区5个典型城市大气PM_(10)短期暴露增大了当地居民非意外总死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的风险,女性死亡风险较高,不同地区死亡风险效应值不同。

Objective To investigate the influence of exposure to inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10))on daily mortality among residents in five representative cities in central and western Inner Mongolia,and dentify sensitive populations and provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate air pollution prevention measures.Methods We collected daily meteorological data,air pollutant concentrations,and resident mortality data from five typical urban areas in Inner Mongolia from 2017 to 2021.Using a two-stage statistical analysis strategy(generalized additive model combined with meta-analysis),we constructed a time series model while controlling for confounding factors such as meteorological conditions and temporal trends.We assessed the effects of short-term exposure to atmospheric PM_(10) on population mortality.Results During the research period,the daily average concentration of PM_(10) in the atmosphere of five typical cities was(89.9±98.2)μg/m3,with a total of 126401 deaths among residents.Meta analysis showed that for every increase in PM_(10)(lag0-2)exposure concentration 10μg/m^(3),the non-accidental total mortality,male,female,and circulatory system disease mortality increased by 0.16%(95%CI:0.01%-0.36%),0.13%(95%CI:0.01%-0.25%),0.23%(95%CI:0.09%-0.37%)and 0.21%(95%CI:0.08%-0.34%),respectively.Conclusions Short-term exposure to atmospheric particulate matter PM_(10) in five typical cities in Inner Mongolia increases the risk of non-accidental total mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality among local residents.Women are more sensitive than men.The effect values vary slightly in different regions.