基于分位数回归的3×3女篮世界杯制胜因素分析——以2022年和2023年3×3女篮世界杯为例

Analysis of Winning Factors in 3×3 Women’s Basketball World Cup Based on Quantile Regression——A Case Study on the 2022 and 2023 3×3 Women’s Basketball World Cup

为了分析高水平女子3×3篮球比赛中攻防表现指标与比赛结果的关系,本文采用文献资料法、分位数回归法、数理统计法等研究方法,基于2022年和2023年3×3女篮世界杯的100场比赛数据,将常规变量、高阶变量、情境变量作为自变量,各参赛球队的最终比赛胜率作为因变量,对其进行统计建模。结果显示:(1)对高胜率球队,提高球员的一分球命中率、罚球命中率、盖帽能力的同时减少球员在场上的失误,可以增加比赛获胜的概率;(2)对低胜率球队,提高球员造犯规的能力和罚球命中率,并且提高球员的防守和争抢篮板的能力,可以增加比赛获胜的概率;(3)无论是高胜率球队还是低胜率球队,罚球命中率对球队最终胜率都有至关重要的作用;(4)通过分位数回归分析可以更深入地揭示因变量和自变量之间的关系,从而为教练员提供更有价值的分析报告,为教练员提高球队胜率提供科学依据。

This study employs research methods such as literature review,quantile regression,and mathematical statistics to analyze the relationship between performance indicators and game results in high-level women's 3×3 basketball.Using data from 100 games in the 2022 and 2023 3×3 Women's Basketball World Cups,conventional variables,high-order variables,and situational variables are used as independent variables,with the final winning percentage of each participating team as the dependent variable for statistical modeling.The findings highlight the following:(1) For high-winning percentage teams,increasing players' three-point shooting percentage,free-throw shooting percentage,and shot-blocking ability while reducing player errors on the court can increase the probability of winning games;(2) For low-winning percentage teams,enhancing players' ability to draw fouls and free-throw shooting percentage,as well as improving players' defensive and rebounding abilities,can increase the probability of winning games;(3) Free-throw shooting percentage plays a crucial role in the final winning percentage for both high and low-winning percentage teams;(4) Quantile regression provides a more in-depth analysis of the relationship between dependent and independent variables,offering coaches valuable analysis reports and a scientific basis for improving team winning percentages.