日本足球运动员留洋欧洲足球联赛对FIFA国家队排名影响的实证分析(2000—2023年)

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Japanese Footballers Playing in European Leagues on FIFA National Team Rankings (2000—2023)

目的:通过2000—2023年日本足球运动员留洋欧洲足球联赛的相关数据,探讨其对FIFA国家队排名的影响。方法:收集221位日本足球运动员在欧洲足球联赛的留洋数据,构建动态面板数据模型,运用工具变量法解决内生性问题,并进一步讨论初次登陆欧洲足球联赛运动员的年龄异质性在FIFA国家队排名关系中的不同影响。结果:日本足球运动员在欧洲足球联赛的上场时间与其FIFA国家队排名数值呈负相关,其留洋足球运动员的上场时间每增加1%,日本的FIFA国家队排名提高0.0023%;年龄异质性检验表明,年龄较大的足球运动员上场时间对FIFA排名的正向影响更为显著。结论:足球运动员留洋至欧洲足球联赛对提升国家队成绩具有显著的正面效应,且欧洲足球联赛较为青睐经验丰富、年龄稍长的日本足球运动员。建议:借鉴日本经验,中国足球队可通过与欧洲俱乐部建立合作机制,优化留洋结构,鼓励并支持有潜力的运动员适时留洋锻炼,以促进国家队竞技水平的提升。

OBJECTIVE:The present study seeks to investigate the impact of Japanese footballers playing in European leagues from 2000 to 2023 on FIFA national team rankings using relevant data.METHODS:Data on 221 Japanese footballers playing in European leagues were collected to build a dynamic panel data model.Instrumental variable methods were employed to address endogeneity issues.Additionally,the study explores the varying effects of age heterogeneity among footballers making their debut in European leagues on FIFA national team rankings.RESULTS:The playing time of Japanese footballers in European leagues demonstrates a negative correlation with their FIFA national team ranking.For every 1% increase in playing time for Japanese footballers in European leagues,Japan's FIFA national team ranking improves by 0.0023%.Age heterogeneity tests indicate that the positive impact of playing time on FIFA rankings is more pronounced for older footballers.CONCLUSION:Playing in European leagues has a significantly positive effect on enhancing national team performance,with European leagues showing a preference for experienced and slightly older Japanese footballers.SUGGESTIONS:Drawing from Japan's experience,the Chinese national football team could optimize its overseas player structure by establishing cooperative mechanisms with European clubs,encouraging and supporting talented players to gain overseas experience,thereby promoting the improvement of the national team's competitive level.