迈向碳中和:中国减煤路径的模拟与评估

Towards carbon neutrality:simulation and evaluation of China′s coal reduction path

为应对全球气候变暖问题,中国提出努力争取2060年前实现碳中和的目标。目前,中国的主要碳排放源自能源消费,而能源消费仍以煤炭消费为主。因此,减少煤炭消费成为中国实现碳中和目标的关键第一步。该研究通过构建动态递归可计算一般均衡模型,深入探讨了多种减煤路径,包括煤炭去产能、碳税、碳交易和煤炭资源税等。通过情景模拟,评估了这些途径在达成相同减煤效果时,对宏观经济、碳排放、产业及能源结构的影响。研究发现,在中国特有的能源体系中,实施减煤路径必将带来碳排放的降低,但不同路径对GDP、产业结构和能源结构的影响却不尽相同。具体来说,煤炭去产能和煤炭资源税对GDP的负面影响最轻,但对于推动产业结构和能源结构的清洁转型没有显著效果,主因是企业能够通过采购廉价能源来维持低成本,从而未根本改变能源成本,且大幅度提升了对外能源依赖度;碳税、碳交易及其混合机制显著促进了产业结构的优化,虽然减排效果更佳,却对经济总量造成了较大的负面影响,因为该类路径考虑了所有能源品种的碳排放成本。建议:一是应注重需求侧减煤路径和碳减排政策的协同效应,完善碳交易机制,尽早将其他高耗能行业纳入碳交易体系,同时需要注意严格碳排放总量控制可能带来的经济损失风险;二是推进电力市场化改革,实现“碳-电”协同减排,将是未来20年减煤降碳的核心策略;三是借助电力市场化的红利,优化煤炭替代策略,如火电可逐步从基荷功能转变为调峰功能。

To address global climate change,China has pledged to strive for carbon neutrality by 2060.At present,the main source of carbon emissions in China is energy consumption,and the energy consumption structure is still dominated by coal.Therefore,reducing coal consumption has become a critical first step for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goal.By constructing a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,this study explored multiple coal reduction paths,including coal overcapacity reduction,carbon tax,carbon trading,and coal resource tax.Through scenario simulation,this study evaluated the effects of these approaches on macro-economy,carbon emissions,industrial structure,and energy structure when the same coal reduction effect was achieved.The study found that in China′s unique energy system,the implementation of the coal reduction paths would definitely bring about a reduc-tion in carbon emissions,but different paths may have different impacts on GDP,industrial structure,and energy structure.Specifically,coal capacity reduction and coal resource tax may have the least negative impact on GDP,but have no significant effect on promoting the clean transformation of industrial structure and energy structure.The main reason is that enterprises can maintain low costs by pur-chasing cheap energy,thus not fundamentally changing energy costs and greatly increasing dependence on foreign energy.Carbon tax and carbon trading and the hybrid mechanism of the two may significantly promote the optimization of industrial structure;although the emission reduction effect is better,they may have a larger negative impact on the total economy because such paths take into account the carbon cost of all energy varieties.Therefore,the study puts forward the following suggestions:First,we should pay attention to the synergistic effect of the demand-side coal reduction path and carbon emission reduction policy,improve the carbon trading mechanism,incorporate other energy-consuming industries into the carbon trading system as soon as possible,and pay attention to the economic loss risk caused by strict total carbon emission control.Second,we should promote the market-oriented reform of electricity and achieve‘carbon-electricity’collaborative emission reduction,which should be the core strategy of coal reduction and carbon reduction in the next 20 years.Third,we should attempt to optimize the coal substitution strategy with the help of the dividend of electricity marketiza-tion,such as thermal power,which can gradually change from the base-load function to the peak-load function.