长江经济带“水-能-碳”系统适应性评价及空间关联特征

Evaluation of‘water-energy-carbon’system adaptability and characterization of spatial correlation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

为应对全球气候变化和资源环境压力,研究水资源、能源和碳排放(水-能-碳)系统间的复杂作用关系和适应性水平,对促进“自然-社会-经济”协调发展和推动经济社会高质量发展具有重要意义。基于复杂适应系统理论,界定“水-能-碳”系统适应性内涵,建立“水-能-碳”系统交互适应性框架,从敏感性、稳定性、兼容性和可持续性4个子系统构建系统适应性评价指标体系,运用综合协同进化模型评价2010—2021年长江经济带“水-能-碳”系统适应性水平,探究长江经济带“水-能-碳”系统适应性的时空演变规律。结果表明:(1)从系统适应性影响权重来看,子系统权重排序为:可持续性>稳定性>兼容性>敏感性。(2)从指标适应性来看,各指标绝对适应性大于相对适应性。从子系统适应性来看,敏感性水平呈稳定发展趋势,兼容性和稳定性水平呈上升趋势,可持续性水平呈下降趋势;从省际适应性来看,各省系统适应性差距较大且呈“下游>中游>上游”的不均衡态势;从整体适应性来看,长江经济带系统适应性处于中等水平且呈“U”型发展趋势。(3)从子系统适应性协调水平来看,敏感性协调程度保持稳定,兼容性和可持续性协调程度不断上升,稳定性协调程度有所减小。(4)从空间关联特征来看,长江经济带系统适应性水平存在显著的正向全局空间自相关,空间聚集由弱变强再变弱,区域差异逐渐缩小;并且系统适应性水平呈现出“东高西低”的梯度格局,省域差异显著且表现出较强的路径依赖。该研究据此从敏感性、兼容性、稳定性和可持续性等方面提出提高长江经济带“水-能-碳”系统适应性的政策建议。

In order to cope with global climate change and the pressure on resources and the environment,it is of great significance to study the complex interactions and adaptability of water resources,energy,and carbon emission(water-energy-carbon)systems to pro-mote the coordinated development of nature,society,and the economy as well as high-quality economic and social development.Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems,this paper defined the implications of the adaptability of the‘water-energy-carbon’sys-tems,established a framework for the interactive adaptability of these systems,and constructed a system adaptability evaluation index system with four subsystems:sensitivity,compatibility,stability,and sustainability.Furthermore,this paper utilized a comprehensive synergistic evolutionary model to evaluate the adaptability level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2021,so as to investi-gate the spatial and temporal evolution of the adaptability of the‘water-energy-carbon’systems in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The results showed that:①From the perspective of the influence weight of system adaptability,the subsystem weights were ranked as:sustainability>stability>compatibility>sensitivity.②Considering the adaptability of the indicators,the absolute adaptability of the indicators was greater than the relative adaptability.Regarding the aspect of subsystem adaptability,the sensitivity level showed a sta-ble development trend,the compatibility and stability levels showed an upward trend,and the sustainability level showed a downward trend.From the perspective of inter-provincial adaptability,there was a large gap between the adaptability of the systems in each prov-ince,with an uneven situation of‘downstream>midstream>upstream.’In terms of overall adaptability,the adaptability of the Yang-tze River Economic Belt system was at a medium level and showed a‘U’-shaped development trend.③In terms of the adaptive coordi-nation level of subsystems,the degree of sensitivity coordination remained stable,the degree of compatibility and sustainability coordi-nation was increasing,and the degree of stability coordination was decreasing.④From the perspective of spatial correlation characteris-tics,there was a significant positive global spatial auto-correlation of the adaptability level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and with the regional differences gradually narrowing,the spatial aggregation changed from weak to strong and then weak again.Moreover,the adaptability level of the system showed a gradient pattern of‘high in the east and low in the west,’with significant provincial differ-ences and strong path dependence.Based on this,this study proposes that we should improve the adaptability of the water-energy-car-bon systems of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in terms of digital construction,institutional mechanisms,system synergy,and regional integration.