基于概率函数触发的锂电池模组热失控蔓延建模与分析方法研究

Modeling and Analysis Method of Thermal Runaway Propagation in Lithium Battery Modules Triggered by Probability Function

针对现有数值模拟方法难以准确反映锂电池热失控触发温度概率性变化的问题,提出基于概率函数触发的锂电池模组热失控蔓延建模方法。该方法首先通过统计分析实际锂电池热失控温度区间和数量分布,以此计算出各温度区间热失控触发概率,然后基于提出的概率触发模拟器实现仿真过程概率触发,采用实验数据对该方法的有效性进行验证,最后对概率函数触发条件下的热蔓延路径及其概率进行分析。结果表明,存在包括跳跃式热失控现象在内的多种热失控蔓延路径,其中顺序热失控的概率最高,而跳跃式热失控的概率最小。所提出的方法为研究锂电池模组热失控蔓延过程的概率性提供有效的研究工具和分析方法。

For the problem that existing numerical simulation methods are unable to accurately reflect the probabilistic temperature variations caused by thermal runaway in lithium batteries,s a modeling method for the thermal runaway propagation of lithium battery modules based on probability function triggering is proposed.This method calculates the triggering probability of thermal runaway in each temperature range by statistical analysis of the temperature range and distribution of actual thermal runaway events in lithium batteries.Based on the proposed probabilistic trigger simulator,the simulation process is probabilistically triggered.The effectiveness of the method is verified by comparing simulation results with experimental data,showcasing a high degree of correlation.Then,the thermal spread paths and their probabilities under different triggering conditions of the probability function are analyzed,revealing multiple potential routes for thermal runaway,including the jump thermal runaway event.The sequential thermal runaway path is identified as the most probable,while the jump phenomenon is deemed least likely.The proposal of this method further improves the consistency between numerical simulation and actual process of thermal runaway in lithium batteries,providing an effective research tool and analysis method for studying the probability of thermal runaway propagation in lithium battery modules.