数据驱动的航空货物全货机和客机腹舱运输风险分析

Data-driven risk analysis on all cargo plane transportation and passenger plane belly cabin transportation of air cargo

为保障航空货物运输安全,基于美国管道和危险材料安全管理局不安全事件数据库,结合贝叶斯网络模型对全货机和客机腹舱货物运输的威胁性、脆弱性进行概率推理,利用模糊损失量化后果严重性,最后计算全货机和客机腹舱货物运输的风险值。研究结果表明:全货机货物运输风险值为9.01,客机腹舱运输货物风险值为46.66,全货机货物运输风险性低于客机腹舱;基于风险分析结果,可从合理规划航空危险品运输种类,加强对未申报危险品的检查和识别,规范收运核查制度等方面优化货物风险管理。研究结果可为航空货运安检策略调整提供理论支持。

To ensure the safety of air cargo transportation,based on the Unsafe Event Database of the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration in the United States,the probability inference on the threat and vulnerability of cargo transportation by all cargo plane and passenger plane belly cabin was conducted combining with Bayesian network model.The severity of consequence was quantified by using fuzzy loss,and the risk values of cargo transportation by all cargo plane and passenger plane belly cabin were calculated.The results show that the risk value of cargo transportation by the all cargo plane is 9.01,and the risk value of cargo transportation by the passenger plane belly cabin is 46.66.The risk value of cargo transportation by all cargo plane is lower than that by the passenger plane belly cabin.Based on the results of risk analysis,the risk management of cargo can be optimized by reasonably planning the types of air dangerous goods transportation,strengthening the inspection and identification of undeclared dangerous goods,and standardizing the collection and verification system.The research results can provide theoretical support for the adjustment of air cargo security inspection strategies.