基于AHP和模糊数学方法的露天采场安全稳定性评价

Safety and Stability Evaluation of Open-Pit Mining Sites Based on AHP and Fuzzy Mathematical Methods

通过对某露天矿山采剥、运输和爆破三大单元进行深入分析,以层次分析法为基础,建立露天矿山采场安全生产稳定性评价模型,并对模型指标层的影响因素通过德尔菲法进行权重分析;以模糊数学评价理论为核心手段将采剥、运输和爆破三大单元分为人为影响因素和自然影响因素两类,并分别选取柯西分布和梯形分布函数为隶属函数对影响采场安全的因素进行模糊分析,建立模糊判断矩阵;根据最大隶属度评价原则,提出露天采场生产安全处于稳定状态的结论。但采场不稳定因素占比也相对较高,仍需加强管理。

Through in-depth analysis of the three units of mining and stripping,transportation,and blasting in a certain open-pit mine,based on the analytic hierarchy process,a safety production stability evaluation model for open-pit mining sites is established,and a weight analysis on the influencing factors of the model′s index layer is made by the Delphi method.At the same time,taking the fuzzy mathematical evaluation theory as the core means,the three units of mining and stripping,transportation and blasting are divided into human factors and natural factors.The Cauchy distribution and trapezoidal distribution function are selected as the membership function to make a fuzzy analysis on the factors affecting stope safety,and a fuzzy judgment matrix is established.Finally,according to the maximum membership evaluation principle,it is concluded that the production safety of the open-pit stope is in a stable state.However,the proportion of unstable factors in the mining area is also relatively high,and management still needs to be strengthened.