统计地震学在京津冀地区地震危险性评估中的应用

Application of Statistical Seismology to Seismic Risk Assessment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

以1980~2022年京津冀地区现代地震目录作为统计样本,采用基于空间分割的非完全中心化Voronoi分割法来网格化研究区域,并以泊松模型为基础建立地震危险性概率模型,开展研究区中期尺度的中小地震概率预测。结果发现,计算得到的概率相对高值区与M_(S)≥3.0地震的发生存在一定的关联性,可以为地震的中长期预测提供参考依据。

We use the catalog of modern earthquakes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1980 to 2022 as a statistical sample.To grid the study area,we use the incompletely centralized Voronoi segmentation method based on spatial segmentation.Based on the Poisson model,the probability model of earthquake risk is established,and we conduct the probability prediction of small and medium earthquakes at the medium-term scale of the study area.The results show that the calculated probability of relatively high value region has a certain correlation with the occurrence of earthquakes with M_(S)≥3.0,which can provide a reference for medium and long term earthquake prediction.