陕西省降水量时空变化特征及其影响分析

Analysis on Characteristics and Impact of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation in Shaanxi Province

为了研究陕西省多年降水特征、变化规律以及对地区生态环境的影响,利用1979—2018年陕西省35个气象站逐日降水数据,基于GIS等方法研究降水量时空变化特征及其影响。结果表明:陕西省降水空间分布不均,年降水量南多北少,陕南地区的暴雨较为频繁,年均在2d以上,而陕北地区的无雨较为频繁,但该地区年均暴雨日数整体呈增加趋势,且增加趋势比其他区域均为明显。年降水量总体呈弱的减少趋势,其变化倾向率为-0.28mm/10a,陕北地区年均降水量呈现增加趋势,关中地区变化趋势存在差异,而陕南地区呈现减少趋势。全省不同时段降水量差异较大,降水主要集中在7—9月,不同季节降水量变化差异较大,夏季降水量以10.18mm/10a的速率减少,而春季、秋季、冬季降水量分别以2.37mm/10a、6.06mm/10a、1.46mm/10a的速率上升。农业种植结构方面应根据降水量的变化趋势优化调整,同时积极发展农业水利工程。暴雨日呈增加趋势的地区,易发生滑坡、泥石流、洪涝等灾害,对当地群众的生命财产安全造成更大威胁,需要相关管理部门重视气象预测、水文预报以及地质灾害防治方面的工作。

The purpose of this paper is to study the characteristics,variation rules of annual precipitation in Shaanxi Province and its influence on regional ecological environment.This paper utilizes daily precipitation data from 35 meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province from 1979 to 2018 to study the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in precipitation and its effects based on GIS and other methods.The results showed that:The spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in Shaanxi Province was uneven,with more annual precipitation in the south than in the north,heavy rain was more frequent in southern Shaanxi,with more than 2 rainy days per year on average,while the northern Shaanxi was rainless generally.However,the average heavy rain days in this region showed an overall increasing trend,and the increasing trend was more obvious than that in other regions.The annual precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend in general,with a change tendency rate of-0.28 mm/10a.The average annual precipitation in northern Shaanxi showed an increasing trend,while the change trend in Guanzhong area was different,and the average annual precipitation in southern Shaanxi showed a decreasing trend.The precipitation throughout Shaanxi varied greatly in different time periods,with precipitation mainly concentrated from July to September.The changes in precipitation varied greatly in different seasons,with precipitation rising at the rate of 2.37 mm/10a,6.06 mm/10a,and 1.46 mm/10a in the spring,fall,and winter,respectively,while precipitation decreased at the rate of 10.18 mm/10a in summer.Agricultural planting structure should be optimized and adjusted according to the trend of precipitation,while actively developing agricultural water conservancy projects.Areas with an increasing trend of heavy rainfall days are prone to landslides,mudslides,floods and other disasters,posing a greater threat to the lives and property of local people,and requiring the relevant authorities to emphasize the meteorological forecasting,hydrological prediction and prevention and control of geological disasters.