基于改进ZSG-DEA的中国省级风光电力消纳配额分配

Provincial Quota Allocation of Wind and Photovoltaic Power Consumption in China Based on Improved Zero Sum Gain Data Envelopment Analysis

科学合理的风光电力消纳配额分配是中国可再生能源配额制成功实施的关键。本文旨在提出一种兼顾公平和效率的风光电力消纳配额分配方案,以期促进风光发电产业发展和区域经济均衡发展。首先,测算中国在2025年非化石能源占比约束下的风光电力消纳总量;其次,构建基于改进零和数据包络分析(Zero Sum Gain Data Envelopment Analysis,ZSG-DEA)的风光电力配额分配模型,实现省级风光电力消纳配额的分配;最后,采用基尼系数评估分配方案的公平性。研究结果表明,(1)中国2025年需要消纳风光电力16473−16759亿千瓦时,才能完成非化石能源占比20%的目标;(2)在兼顾公平和效率的分配原则下,东南沿海地区需要消纳更多的风光电力;(3)分配实现DEA有效,且基尼系数为0.2312,达到比较公平的水平。本研究为中国政策制定者科学合理设置非水可再生能源电力消纳责任权重提供参考依据,为成功实施可再生能源配额制提供保障。

Scientific and reasonable allocation of wind and photovoltaic power consumption quotas is the key to the successful implementation of China's renewable portfolio standard.This paper aims to propose a liability quota scheme for wind and photovoltaic power consumption that balances fairness and efficiency,so as to promote the development of wind and photovoltaic power generation industry and balanced regional economy.Firstly,this paper estimates the total volume of wind and photovoltaic power consumption in China under the target of the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption in 2025.Secondly,a quota allocation model of wind and photovoltaic power consumption based on the improved Zero Sum Gain Data Envelopment Analysis(ZSG-DEA)model is constructed to achieve provincial quota allocation of wind and photovoltaic power consumption.Finally,the GINI coefficient is used to assess the fairness of the allocation scheme.The results show that firstly china needs to consume 16,473−1,675.9 billion kWh of wind and photovoltaic power in 2025 to achieve the target of non-fossil energy accounting for 20%of primary energy consumption;secondly,under the principle of balancing fairness and efficiency,the southeast coastal region need to consume more power generated from wind and photovoltaic energy;thirdly the allocation achieves DEA efficiency and the Gini coefficient of the allocation is 0.2312,reaching a relatively fair level.This paper provides a reference for China’s policy makers to scientifically and rationally set the weight of renewable power(excluding hydropower)consumption obligation,and provides a guarantee for the successful implementation of the renewable portfolio standard.