兰州市城关区中老年人群恶性肿瘤发病与死亡情况及其危险因素的队列研究

Cohort study on the incidence,mortality and risk factors of malignant tumors in the middle-aged and elderly population in Chengguan district of Lanzhou

目的分析2011-2021年兰州市城关区中老年人群恶性肿瘤的发病与死亡情况,并探讨其相关危险因素。方法采用兰州地区REACTION研究数据,从2011年4月通过整群抽样对兰州市城关区的3个社区开展流行病学调查,目标人群为40岁以上的中老年居民,并于2014-2016年和2021年先后开展两次随访调查,最终纳入资料完整的6543人。计算恶性肿瘤的发病率及死亡率,以及两者的标化率,其中标化率参考Segi's世界标准人口年龄构成。采用多因素Cox回归模型分析筛选影响恶性肿瘤发病与死亡的危险因素。结果在平均随访10.6年后,兰州市城关区中老年居民新发恶性肿瘤314例,发病率和标化率分别为454.30/10万和128.93/10万;因恶性肿瘤死亡158例,死亡率和标化率分别为228.41/10万和60.79/10万;男性恶性肿瘤的标化发病率和标化死亡率均高于女性(P<0.05)。随访期间总人群恶性肿瘤的标化发病率呈上升趋势(P<0.05),而标化死亡率在短暂上升后缓慢下降(P<0.05)。肺癌、结直肠癌、胃癌及肝癌是位居不同性别发病和死亡前5位的主要恶性肿瘤类型。多因素Cox回归模型结果显示,男性、年龄≥60岁、大专及以上文化水平、吸烟史、饮酒史、遭受过重大打击事件、中心性肥胖、高血压、冠心病是恶性肿瘤发病或死亡的危险因素(HR>1),已婚、家庭人口数≥4、经常食用新鲜水果、经常食用新鲜蔬菜、经常食用谷物及薯类是恶性肿瘤发病或死亡的保护性因素(HR<1)。结论2011-2021年兰州市城关区中老年人群恶性肿瘤的发病率呈上升趋势,但死亡率整体趋于下降。对高龄人群早期进行肿瘤筛查、保持健康的生活方式以及加强慢性疾病的管理对恶性肿瘤的防治至关重要。

Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors among the middle-aged and elderly population in Chengguan district of Lanzhou from 2011 to 2021,and to discuss the related risk factors.Methods Using the research data of REACTION in Lanzhou,an epidemiological survey was conducted through cluster sampling in three communities in Chengguan district of Lanzhou since April 2011.The target population was middle-aged and elderly residents over 40 years old.Two follow-up surveys were carried out in 2014-2016 and 2021 successively,and 6543 people with complete follow-up data were finally included.The incidence and mortality rates of malignant tumors were calculated,as well as their age standardized rates with reference to the age composition of Segi's world standard population.Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors affecting the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors.Results After an average follow-up of 10.6 years,314 new cases of malignant tumors were found in middle-aged and elderly residents in Chengguan district of Lanzhou,with an incidence rate and age standardized incidence rate of 454.30/100000 and 128.93/100000,respectively.A total of 158 deaths were attributed to malignant tumors,with a mortality rate and age standardized rate of 228.41/100000 and 607.9/100000,respectively;The age standardized incidence rate and mortality rate of malignant tumors males were both higher than those females(P<0.05).During the follow-up period,the age standardized incidence rate of malignant tumors in the general population showed an significant upward trend(P<0.05),whereas the age standardized mortality rate gradually decreased after a brief increase(P<0.05).Lung cancer,colorectal cancer,gastric cancer,and liver cancer were the main types of malignant tumors ranking in the top five in terms of incidence and mortality by gender.Multivariate Cox regression results indicate that male,age≥60 years old,college education level or above,smoking history,drinking history,having been hit by major stressful events,central obesity,hypertension,and coronary heart disease are risk factors for the onset or death of malignant tumors(HR>1).Married,with family size≥4,frequent consumption of fresh fruit,frequent consumption of fresh vegetables,frequent consumption of grains and tubers are protective factors for the onset or death of malignant tumors(HR<1).Conclusion The incidence of malignant tumors among middle-aged and elderly people in Chengguan district of Lanzhou from 2011 to 2021 showed an increasing trend,while the overall mortality was decreasing.Our study indicates early cancer screening in elderly populations,maintaining a healthy lifestyle and strengthening the management of chronic diseases are crucial for the prevention and treatment of malignant tumors.