基于3E系统的安徽省减污降碳政策组合效果仿真研究

Simulation Study on Combination Effect of Pollution and Carbon Reduction Policies in Anhui Province Based on 3E System

通过分析安徽省能源、经济与环境系统的运行机制,构建了该省3E减污降碳政策仿真模型,利用系统动力学模拟4种政策组合情景对安徽减污降碳的治理效果。结果显示:不同的政策组合对污染物治理表现出不同政策效果,与单一政策相比,4项政策协同的累加效应对环境相对污染度治理效果最佳;安徽经济发展模式对能源依赖度较高,降低高能耗产业规模、优化能源结构,能有效促进其减污降碳进程;绿色金融政策能够对能耗减少产生显著的正向影响,通过绿色信贷的激励和约束双重机制强化企业减污降碳的能力,并在经济发展与环境污染治理等方面起到积极的协同效应。

The operation mechanism of energy,economy and environment system in Anhui province was analyzed,and the simulation model of Anhui 3E pollution and carbon reduction policy was constructed.The effect of four policy combination scenarios on pollution and carbon reduction in Anhui Province was simulated by system dynamics.The simulation results show that different policy combinations have different policy effects on pollutant control.Compared with a single policy,the cumulative effect of the coordination of four policies has the best effect on the control of environmental relative pollution.Anhui's economic development mode is highly dependent on energy.Reducing the scale of high-energy-consuming industries and optimizing the energy structure can effectively promote the process of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Anhui.Green finance policy can have a significant positive impact on energy consumption reduction,strengthen the ability of enterprises to reduce pollution and carbon through the dual mechanism of incentive and constraint of green credit,and play a positive synergistic effect on economic development and environmental pollution control.