电动汽车充电负荷的蒙特卡洛预测方法

Monte Carlo Prediction Method for Electric Vehicle Charging Loads

随着电动汽车的大力发展,大量电动汽车充电负荷接入电网,给电网安全稳定运行带来极大的挑战。本文从电动汽车个体和电动汽车集群两个方面,分析了电动汽车充电负荷的影响因素,使用灰色关联分析法量化了各因素间的关联度,基于蒙特卡洛算法建立了电动汽车充电负荷的预测模型,根据电动汽车保有量、出行需求等模型参数对公交车、出租车、私家车的充电负荷进行了预测。仿真表明,所提方法能够准确表达各类型电动汽车的充电特征,为电动汽车充电策略提供了有效参考依据,促进电网安全稳定运行。

With the vigorous development of electric vehicles,a large number of electric vehicle charging loads are connected to the power grid, bringing great challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power grid. In this work, the influencing factors of electric vehicle charging load were analyzed from two aspects,namely,individual electric vehicles and electric vehicle clusters,and the correlation between factors was quantified using gray correlation analysis;a prediction model of electric vehicle charging load was established based on Monte Carlo simulation algorithm,and the charging loads of buses,cabs,and private cars were predicted based on parameters such as the number of electric vehicles,travel demand,and so on.Simulation results show that the proposed method can accurately express the charging characteristics of various types of electric vehicles, provide an effective reference basis for electric vehicle charging strategy,and promote the safe and stable operation of the power grid.