水质保护与用水效率的主从博弈稳健优化模型及其应用

Stackelberg game robust optimization model for water quality protection and water resource utilization and its application

水资源系统的复杂不确定性为可靠的水资源优化配置带来挑战。为实现水质保护与用水效率均衡,基于量化水资源系统不确定性的稳健参数建立了主从博弈稳健优化模型,并采用稳健对等转换法和模糊满意度算法进行联合求解。以汉江中下游流域为研究区域,结果表明:主从博弈稳健模型的均衡解劣于确定性多目标模型的优化解,模型以牺牲目标最优值为代价提高了可靠性;不确定性影响均衡解的决策范围,高不确定度下均衡解范围更宽,能够为不确定性下提升决策策略的适应性提供依据。相比于单目标的水质保护稳健模型与经济发展稳健模型,主从博弈稳健模型能提供更均衡的水资源配置方案。模型的敏感性分析揭示了目标层对稳健参数变化的响应规律。本研究可为不确定情景下水资源冲突管理提供适应性稳健决策方法。

The complex uncertainties of water resources systems bring challenges to reliable optimal allocation of water resources.In order to achieve a balance between water quality protection and water use efficiency,a stackelberg game robust optimization model was established based on robust parameters that quantify the uncertainty of the water resources system,and the robust equivalent conversion method and the fuzzy satisfaction algorithm were used jointly to solve the problem.Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River basin as the research area,the results show that the equilibrium solution of the stackelberg game robust model is located obliquely above the optimization solution of the traditional multi-objective model with a trend of increasing total sewage discharge and decreasing economic benefits,and the optimization objectives of the equilibrium solution are inferior to the optimization;uncertainty affects the decision-making of the equilibrium solution range,and the equilibrium solution range is wider under high uncertainty,which can provide a basis for improving the adaptability of decision-making strategies under uncertainty.Compared with the single-objective water quality protection robust model and the economic development robust model,the stackelberg game robust model can provide a more balanced water resources allocation plan.Sensitivity analysis of the model reveals the response pattern of the target layer to robust parameter changes.The research provides an adaptive and robust decision-making method for water resource conflict management under uncertain scenarios.