摘要
为了降低电网二次系统运行风险,本文提出了一种基于改进蒙特卡洛法的电网二次系统评估方法。采用马尔科夫链对蒙特卡洛法进行改进;利用改进蒙特卡洛法对电网运行数据进行算例分析,对电网二次系统进行风险评估。仿真结果表明,改进蒙特卡洛法的各项稳定性指标更好,电网在冬季最大运行方式下的运行风险最大,可靠性最差,仿真结果对电网风险管理具有指导意义。
In order to reduce the operational risks of the secondary system of the power grid,this paper proposes an improved Monte Carlo Method for evaluating the secondary system of the power grid.The markov chain is used to improve the Monte Carlo Method,and the improved Monte Carlo Method is used to analyze the operational data of the power grid.The risk assessment of the secondary system of the power grid is carried out.The results show that the improved Monte Carlo Method has better stability indicators,and the power grid has the highest operational risk and the worst reliability under the maximum operating mode in winter.The simulation results have guiding significance for power grid risk management.
作者
徐朝君
XU Chaojun(Dongguan Electronics&Commerce School,Dongguan 523000,Guangdong,China)
出处
《智能计算机与应用》
2024年第7期90-93,共4页
Intelligent Computer and Applications
关键词
电网
二次系统
风险评估
改进蒙特卡洛法
power grid
secondary system
risk assessment
improved Monte Carlo Method
