2020年北京市中医药总费用实际与预测对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Actual and Predicted Total Cost of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Beijing in 2020

目的探究北京市2013-2020年中医药总费用的流向情况,对比受新冠疫情影响的2020年实际与预测中医药总费用的差距。方法采用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测2020年北京市中医药总费用。结果北京市中医药总费用主要流向医院、药品零售机构和基层医疗卫生机构,2020年中医药总费用下降明显,其中仅门诊部中医药总费用达到预测值,医院和药品零售机构中医药总费用与预测值相差较大,中医药总费用进一步流向基层医疗卫生机构。结论北京市需加速推进医院复工复产工作,进一步提高基层医疗卫生机构中医药服务能力,加强公共卫生机构中医药建设,推动中医药发展。

Objective To explore the flow of the total cost of traditional Chinese medicine in Beijing from 2013 to 2020,and to compare the gap between the actual and predicted total cost of traditional Chinese medicine in 2020 affected by the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods The gray model GM(1,1)was used to predict the total cost of traditional Chinese medicine in Beijing in 2020.Results The total cost of TCM in Beijing mainly flowed to hospitals,drug retail institutions and primary health care institutions.In 2020,the total cost of TCM decreased significantly,of which only the total cost of TCM in outpatient clinics reached the forecast value.The total cost of TCM in hospitals and drug retail institutions differed significantly from the forecast value,and the total cost of TCM further flowed to primary health care institutions.Conclusion Beijing needs to accelerate the resumption of work and production in hospitals,further improve the service capacity of TCM in primary medical and health institutions,strengthen the construction of TCM in public health institutions,and promote the development of TCM.